Thailand’s sugar output to drop at least 17%, worsening global squeeze
Thailand’s sugar output is expected to fall at least 17% to below 10 million tonnes in 2026/27 as El Niño-related dryness hits key growing regions. Lower rainfall, especially in the northeast, and potential crop switching to cassava could tighten global supplies and further support already-rising sugar prices.
Thailand’s sugar output may drop at least 17% in the coming season, adding to the strain on global supplies as dryness hits some of the world’s major growers.
Production is likely to fall below 10 million tonnes in the 2026-27 year that starts in October, according to Rangsit Hiangrat, the director of industry association Thai Sugar Millers Corp. That compares with 12 million tonnes in the prior season.
The country is the world’s second-largest exporter, and the downturn comes as the El Niño weather phenomenon strengthens — which is known for bringing dryness to swathes of South and Southeast Asia. The supply risks have pushed New York sugar futures higher, with prices climbing more than 20% last month in the biggest jump since 2010.
Rainfall in the northeast, which accounts for about 45% of Thailand’s total production, has been lower this year than in other parts of the country, Hiangrat said. In addition, relatively higher cassava prices could encourage local farmers to switch crops, he added.
In India, another major sugar grower, rainfall during the monsoon season that ends this month has also trailed normal levels. The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global deficit of about 260,000 tonnes in the coming season, citing El Niño’s impact on harvests in Asia.
Thailand’s sugar output peaked in the 2017-18 and 2018-19 production years at more than 14.5 million tonnes, according to data from the Thai Sugar Millers Corp. Production has held lower since and typically averages about 10 million tonnes, produced from around 90 million to 100 million tonnes of sugarcane, Hiangrat said.
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Source : The Edge Malaysia
