Tur, edible oil, maize prices: How weaker sowing is shaping India’s food inflation outlook
India’s food commodity markets are closely watching August rainfall as pulses, edible oils and maize face supply risks from lower kharif acreage. Experts expect stable-to-firm prices, higher edible oil imports, possible maize imports if supplies tighten, and continued food inflation concerns despite improving monsoon conditions.
India’s food commodity markets are closely watching the impact of uneven monsoon distribution and delayed sowing, with pulses, edible oils and maize emerging as key areas of concern for prices in the coming months.
While the southwest monsoon has recovered sharply after a weak start, acreage under several major kharif crops remains below last year’s levels. Industry experts said the next few weeks of rainfall will be crucial in determining crop output and price trends.
Sohil Tanna, Director at Agrocorp International, said pulse markets, especially tur, remain uncertain but there is no immediate supply crisis as stocks are available with private players and imports are expected.
“Tur is a confusing situation at the moment. The next 15 days of rainfall will be very crucial,” Tanna said in an interview with CNBC-TV18.
He added that India is likely to require more than 6 million tonnes of pulses imports in FY27, even as domestic availability remains supported by existing stocks and overseas supplies.
“Private players have a good carry stock in India for tur, and the African crop is also about to start,” he said.
Tur prices may remain elevated
Tur prices have risen over the past month amid concerns around lower sowing in key producing states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh. However, Tanna said the recent price rise has largely been driven by market sentiment over delayed rains rather than a major supply shortage.
“The market has stabilised. There will not be much upward movement, and there will not be a major downfall either unless we see further rainfall developments over the next 15 days,” he said.
According to Tanna, urad prices could see a correction of around 3-4%, while tur prices may decline another 2-3% from current levels but are unlikely to see a sharp fall.
The government is also closely monitoring pulse prices and could intervene if rates rise significantly, he said. Measures such as stock limits or duty cuts could be considered if prices move beyond comfortable levels.
Edible oil imports to rise amid weaker rupee
The edible oil market is facing a different challenge, with India expected to remain dependent on imports due to lower oilseed acreage and rising domestic demand.
Nirav Desai, Managing Partner at GGN Group, said soybean acreage has declined, particularly in Maharashtra, while groundnut acreage has also seen a drop in key states such as Gujarat.
“As of now, there is no major yield concern. For kharif crops, it is not about receiving 40 or 50 inches of rainfall. It is about the right distribution of rainfall,” Desai said.
He said the outlook for the kharif oilseed crop will depend largely on rainfall during August and early September.
India has already built a strong import pipeline for edible oils, with arrivals expected to remain around 14-15 lakh tonnes in the coming months. However, a weaker rupee and higher global prices are likely to keep the import bill elevated.
“India is currently well-stocked. There is a good supply pipeline,” Desai said, adding that global supplies from Indonesia, Malaysia and South America remain supportive.
However, he expects edible oil prices to remain firm due to demand growth and potential supply pressure from biodiesel mandates.
“If Indonesia’s B50 implementation happens smoothly, then palm oil availability could reduce significantly, especially in Q4 2026 and moving into Q1 and Q2 of 2027,” he said.
Maize acreage decline raises import concerns
The maize market is also facing supply concerns, with acreage reported to be lower than last year due to delayed monsoon, lower prices during the previous season and farmers shifting towards other crops.
CA Brijesh Lahoti, Director at Greenlime Trades Pvt Ltd, said maize sowing is down by nearly 10% compared with last year.
“Since the monsoon arrived late after June, overall sowing numbers are showing that most southern states are lagging compared with central Indian states like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan,” Lahoti said.
The pressure on maize supplies comes at a time when demand from the poultry, cattle feed, starch and ethanol industries continues to grow.
Lahoti said the feed industry has limited alternatives because maize remains the primary crop used for animal nutrition. While ethanol producers can shift towards other grains such as broken rice and damaged food grains, feed demand remains dependent on maize.
He said India could consider maize imports in the next six months if supply tightens.
“Right now, there is no maize available that can be imported into India,” he said.
Prices remain firm but sharp rally unlikely
Maize prices have already recovered significantly, rising around 25-30% over the last three months. However, Lahoti expects only limited further upside as markets have stabilised.
“From here, we can expect some upside in maize prices, but not much. Ultimately, markets are the king, and you cannot predict them with 100% accuracy,” he said.
He expects demand from feed and starch industries to grow by around 6-8% annually, while ethanol demand could increasingly shift towards alternative feedstocks.
The overall outlook for India’s food commodities will depend on rainfall distribution over the next few weeks. While the monsoon recovery has reduced immediate crop concerns, uneven sowing and supply pressures in key commodities could keep food inflation risks alive.
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Source : CNBC TV18
