USDA again raises forecast for wheat harvest and exports from Ukraine
The USDA’s July 2026/27 outlook marginally lowered global wheat production to 819.97 million tonnes and ending stocks to 272.84 million tonnes, while raising exports to 213.05 million tonnes. Ukraine’s harvest and exports increased, U.S. production declined, and forecasts for major exporters remained mostly stable.
The USDA has released its July forecast for wheat harvests, exports and ending stocks for major wheat producers for the MY 2026/27.
According to the July forecast, world wheat production in the MY 2026/27 will be 819.97 million tons, which is 0.09 million tons less than expected in June. Global exports are estimated at 213.05 million tons (+1.1 million tons), and ending stocks are 272.84 million tons (-2.58 million tons).
For Ukraine, the USDA has increased its wheat harvest forecast to 24 million tons compared to 23.5 million tons in June. The export estimate was also revised upwards to 14.5 million tons from 14 million tons. The forecast for ending stocks was left unchanged at 2.53 million tons.
For the US, the USDA slightly lowered its wheat production forecast to 41.81 million tons from 42.01 million tons in June. The export forecast remained at 21.09 million tons, and ending stocks decreased to 19.66 million tons from 20.25 million tons.
Forecast for major wheat exporters for the MY 2026/27:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Export, mln tons | Ending stocks, mln tons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 21 (0) | 15 (+0,5) | 2,69 (-0,5) |
| Australia | 28 (0) | 22 (0) | 3,19 (0) |
| Canada | 34 (-1) | 27,5 (-0,5) | 4,21 (-0,42) |
| EU | 136 (0) | 31 (0) | 14,33 (-0,3) |
| Russia | 88,5 (+0,5) | 47,5 (+0,5) | 12,09 (0) |
USDA analysts left the forecast for wheat production in China unchanged at 141 million tons. The country’s imports are estimated at 6 million tons, and ending stocks were reduced to 120.65 million tons from 120.85 million tons.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
