USDA lowers 2026-2027 Philippines sugar output forecast
USDA cut the Philippines’ 2026-27 raw sugar production forecast 8% to 1.7 million tonnes due to pest infestation, El Niño and rising input costs. Consumption is projected to increase 2% to 2.3 million tonnes, refined sugar imports to reach 300,000 tonnes, and stocks to fall 43% to 376,000 tonnes.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lowered its Philippine raw sugar production forecast for marketing year 2026–2027, as pest infestation, El Niño, and rising costs weigh on output.
In its Oct. 8 report, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service in Manila projected production at 1.7 million metric tons (MT), down 8 percent from its revised 2025–2026 estimate of 1.85 million MT.
The agency identified red-striped soft scale insect (RSSI) infestation as the main concern. Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) data showed the pest affected 139,364 hectares as of Aug. 28, or 33 percent of the country’s 421,606 ha planted with sugarcane.
Nearly half of the affected area was in the Visayas, particularly Negros and Panay, the heart of Philippine sugar production.
Another factor is below-normal rainfall during El Niño, which deprives sugarcane of water during its first six to eight months of growth. Dry conditions also accelerate RSSI reproduction, compounding crop damage.
Higher fertilizer and fuel prices, along with increased insecticide use, are also raising production costs and reducing farmers’ returns, USDA said.
Sugar consumption is projected to rise 2 percent to 2.3 million MT from 2.25 million MT, driven by demand for sweet products, particularly from food and beverage manufacturers.
Citing a University of Asia and the Pacific Center for Food and Agribusiness study, USDA said industrial users account for half of domestic demand; households, 32 percent; and institutional users, 18 percent.
USDA expects no raw sugar exports from the Philippines in 2026–2027 despite a US allocation of 154,386 MT raw value (MTRV). This comprises an initial quota of 145,235 MTRV and an additional 9,151 MTRV.
SRA Administrator Pablo Luis Azcona said the agency asked for time until November to decide whether to fulfill the quota, pending October and November milling results.
Meanwhile, refined sugar imports are forecast at 300,000 MT, equivalent to 321,000 MT of raw sugar, up from the previous year’s revised estimate of 214,000 MT raw value.
The forecast considers Sugar Order 3, Series of 2025–2026, which gives eligible exporters priority in future import programs at three tons of imports for every ton exported.
It also aligns with Sugar Order 2, issued Jan. 14, covering voluntary purchases of farmers’ sugar to qualify for future import and export programs.
Sugar stocks are projected to fall 43 percent to 376,000 MT from 655,000 MT.
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Source : The Manila Times
