USDA leaves wheat harvest forecast in Ukraine unchanged
USDA projects 2025/26 world wheat production at 806.9 million tons, down 1.65 million. Exports are forecast at 213.53 million tons (+0.47), with ending stocks reduced to 260.08 million tons (−1.44). China’s crop is 140 million tons (−2), Ukraine 22 million, U.S. 52.45 million. Key exporters: Russia 46, EU 32, Canada 27, Australia 25, Argentina 13 million tons.
USDA forecasts world wheat production in MY 2025/26 at 806.9 million tons (-1.65 million tons compared to the previous forecast), according to the USDA report for August.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 213.53 million tons (+0.47 million tons). Experts have lowered the forecast for ending wheat stocks in the world to 260.08 million tons (-1.44 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest in Ukraine is unchanged at 22 million tons, exports will be at 15.5 million tons, ending stocks are unchanged at 0.93 million tons (-0.66 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest for the USA is 52.45 million tons (-0.04 million tons). Estimated exports are 23.81 million tons (+0.68 million tons), ending stocks are 23.64 million tons (-0.59 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for MY 2025/26:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Exports, mln ton | Stocks, miln ton |
| Argentina | 19,7 (-0,3) | 13 (0) | 4,35 (-0,3) |
| Australia | 31 (0) | 25 (0) | 4,38 (+0,03) |
| Canada | 35 (0) | 27 (0) | 3,49 (0) |
| EU | 138,25 (+1) | 32 (0) | 12,61 (0) |
| Russia | 83,5 (0) | 46 (0) | 9,39 (0) |
USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in MY 2025/26 at 140 million tons (-2 million tons), import estimate — 6 million tons, ending stocks — 124.78 million tons (+0.18 million tons).
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
