Vegetable oil stocks may fall to a four-year low at the end of the season.
The expected record soybean harvest in South America will put significant pressure on global prices for soybeans and other processed oilseed products. However, amid high consumption, stocks of 17 types of vegetable oils and fats could fall to a four-year low, according to analysts at Oil World (Germany).
To balance the market, increased soybean processing is needed, as global soybean stocks are expected to reach a new high of 124-125 million tonnes in 2025/26. However, the stock-to-use ratio remains high at around 29%.
Consumption of all types of oils will increase by 7.4 million tons per year, which will lead to a reduction in stocks to a four-year minimum of 33.8 million tons at the end of the 2025/26 season.
Meal production will increase by 1.9 million tonnes due to increased processing, including increases in rapeseed and sunflower meal (approximately 0.7 million tonnes each). Global soybean meal production could reach a new record high of 287.1 million tonnes.
Analysts also note the 10–15% increase in prices for the main meal products in November, but consider this trend to be unsustainable, as it is not supported by fundamental factors of supply and demand.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
