USDA analysts reduced the forecast for Ukrainian corn exports
USDA’s February outlook pegs 2025/26 global corn output at 1.296 billion tons, with slightly higher exports and lower ending stocks at 288.98 million tons. U.S. exports rose while stocks fell. Ukraine’s exports were cut. Brazil and Argentina forecasts remain steady, while China’s imports are seen at 8 million tons.
USDA forecasts world corn production in MY 2025/26 at 1,295.91 million tons (-0.1 million tons). This is stated in the ministry’s February report.
Estimated world corn exports are 206.55 million tons (+1.44 million tons), forecast ending stocks are 288.98 million tons (-1.93 million tons).
USDA analysts left the forecast for the corn harvest in Ukraine in MY 2025/26 unchanged at 29 million tons. Estimated exports decreased to 22 million tons (-1 million tons), ending stocks are 1.65 million tons (+0.8 million tons).
The forecast for corn production in the United States has not changed and remains at 432.34 million tons, the forecast for exports has increased by 83.82 million tons (2.54 million tons), and ending stocks have decreased from 56.56 million tons to 54.02 million tons.
Forecast for major corn exporters for the MY 2025/26:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Export, mln tons | Stocks, mln tons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 53 (0) | 37 (0) | 5,89 (0) |
| Brazil | 131 (0) | 43 (0) | 3,68 (0) |
| Russia | 14,5 (0) | 3 (0) | 1,06 (0) |
| South Africa | 16,5 (0) | 2 (0) | 2,04 (+0,03) |
The corn harvest in China is estimated at 301.24 million tons. Imports will amount to 8 million tons, ending stocks will be 180.15 million tons.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
