EU wheat production in MY 2026/27 may decline after record harvest
EU wheat production is set to decline in 2026/27 due to reduced acreage and lower yields, with output forecast at 136.8 million tonnes. Despite stable exports, rising consumption and lower stocks may tighten supply, though favorable weather could still improve final harvest outcomes.
In the European Union, wheat production is forecast to decline in the 2026/27 season compared to the previous year’s record harvest. According to estimates by the US Department of Agriculture attaché in Madrid, the gross harvest could amount to about 136.8 million tons compared to 145.1 million tons in the MY 2025/26.
The main reasons for the decline are the reduction in sown areas and yields. In particular, the area under wheat is estimated at 23.65 million hectares compared to 23.96 million hectares a year earlier, and the average yield could decrease to 5.78 t/ha from 6.06 t/ha.
At the same time, analysts do not exclude that the actual harvest may be higher than forecast in the event of favorable weather conditions in spring and early summer. In particular, in France, the condition of the crops is estimated to be better than last year, without significant losses due to weather factors.
EU wheat imports are expected to increase slightly to 6.5 million tonnes, while exports are expected to remain stable at around 32 million tonnes. The main buyers are North Africa, the Middle East and the UK.
Despite an increase in consumption to 112.45 million tonnes, EU ending wheat stocks are expected to fall to 18.98 million tonnes, indicating some weakening of the balance after the previous season’s high harvest.
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Source : UkrAgroConsult
