North African countries to reduce wheat imports by nearly 13% in MY 2026/27 — USDA
North African wheat imports are projected to fall 12.9% to 29 million tonnes in 2026/27 due to improved harvest prospects in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. Morocco is expected to record the sharpest decline in imports, while Egypt will remain the world’s largest wheat importer at 12.5 million tonnes.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that North African countries will reduce wheat imports to 29 million tonnes in the MY 2026/27. This would represent a 12.9% decline compared to the previous season, when the region imported 33.3 million tonnes of wheat.
If realized, this would mark the first decline in regional wheat imports in the past five years. The expected decrease is mainly driven by improved crop prospects in several North African countries.
Morocco is expected to post the sharpest reduction in wheat purchases. USDA estimates the country’s imports at 4 million tonnes in 2026/27, down nearly 43% year-on-year. Algeria is projected to cut imports by 10%, while Egypt may reduce purchases by 5%.
According to the USDA, favorable weather conditions have improved grain production prospects across the region. Morocco expects its cereal harvest to double by the end of the 2025/26 season, while Tunisia forecasts a roughly 20% increase in crop output.
Despite the projected decline, North Africa will remain one of the world’s most import-dependent wheat regions. Egypt is also expected to retain its position as the world’s largest wheat importer.
In the 2026/27 marketing year, Egypt is forecast to purchase around 12.5 million tonnes of wheat on international markets, matching Indonesia’s import level. Lower import volumes could nevertheless help ease food import costs across the region amid continued volatility in global agricultural commodity prices.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
