IGC: Global grain output to fall for first time in four years
International Grains Council forecast global grain production to decline for the first time in four years in 2026-27 due to lower acreage and weaker yields. Wheat and corn output may fall, while soybean production is projected to hit a record, and global rice trade could rise 4%.
LONDON, ENGLAND — Global grain production is forecast to decline for the first time in four years due to smaller harvested area and poorer average yields, according to the International Grains Council’s (IGC) latest Grain Market Report.
While projected wheat and corn output were unchanged from the previous month, the report, released on May 21, showed production for the two grains decreasing from 2025-26. The IGC sees wheat production declining by 3% year on year to 820 million tonnes and corn outturn falling by 2% to 1.3 billion tonnes.
“Owing to rising use of wheat, maize and barley, total uptake is predicted to edge higher,” the IGC said. “(Ending) stocks are seen tightening by 4% but at 615 million tonnes, are seen matching the five-year average.”
Total grains trade is projected to decline by 2% “mainly owing to smaller imports by North Africa and Near East Asia.”
The IGC sees soybean production in 2026-27 edging slightly higher compared to the April report, reaching a record 442 million tonnes.
“Global output is expected to expand by 3% year on year amid expectations for bigger harvests in major producers,” the IGC said.
Soybean consumption also is expected to increase to a record 445 million tonnes as “demand across all end-use segments is set to underpin processing as combined reserves are drawn down modestly.”
The Council revised rice production to 3 million tonnes lower than the previous month. But if realized, it would still match last year’s record of 545 million tonnes.
The IGC also predicted that world rice trade would reach a peak of 62 million tonnes, a 4% increase from the previous year, “boosted by firmer African buying.”
With most markets exhibiting a firm undertone, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index (GOI) increased by 2.6% from the previous month, as wheat led the way with a 4.2% jump.The overall index was up nearly 8% year on year with soybeans (up 12%) and barley (up 9%) having the biggest increases.
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Source : World Grain.Com
