Brazil nearly doubles grain harvest in a decade
Brazil is forecast to harvest a record 360.1 million tonnes of grain in 2025/26, up 2.2% from last season and 92.8% higher than a decade ago. Soybean production reached 180.6 million tonnes, while maize output is estimated at a record 141.7 million tonnes, reinforcing Brazil’s global agricultural leadership.
Brazil’s grain production is on the verge of reaching a new record in the 2025/26 season, consolidating a structural transformation in the country’s agriculture over the past decade.
Survey reveals record grain forecast
According to the 10th Grain Harvest Survey for the 2025/26 season, released on Tuesday (14) by the National Supply Company (Conab), Brazil is expected to harvest 360.1 million tonnes of grain.
This represents an increase of 92.8% compared with the 2015/16 crop, when production totalled 186.8 million tonnes.
Although production has not yet doubled, Brazil has come remarkably close to achieving that milestone in just 10 years, reinforcing the country’s expanding production capacity.
These figures consolidate a decade of strong growth in Brazilian agriculture.
Over the past 10 years, the country has added 173.3 million tonnes to its annual grain production, strengthening its position as one of the world’s leading suppliers of food, fibre and biofuels.
Production growth drivers
Compared with the previous season, production is forecast to increase by 2.2%, equivalent to an additional 7.8 million tonnes.
This growth is driven primarily by the expansion of the cultivated area, which is estimated at 83.5 million hectares. Brazil’s total area is equivalent to 850 million hectares.
Meanwhile, the national average yield is expected to remain virtually unchanged at 4,311 kilograms per hectare.
The productivity shows 1,108 kilograms more per hectare than a decade ago, which was 3,203 in the season 2015/2016.
Soybeans keep top position
Soybeans remain Brazil’s leading crop and are expected to account for approximately half of the country’s total grain production.
With harvesting now complete, soybean production reached 180.6 million tonnes, an increase of 5.3% compared with the previous season.
The result was driven by a 2.7% expansion in the planted area, combined with favourable weather conditions and the high level of technology adopted by Brazilian farmers.
The outcome further strengthens Brazil’s position as the world’s largest producer and exporter of the commodity.
Maize output reaches new heights
Maize has also reached a new historic level. Production from Brazil’s 3 annual maize crops is estimated at 141.7 million tonnes, up 0.4% on the previous cycle.
The first crop has been virtually completed, with production estimated at 29.6 million tonnes.
Harvesting of the second crop, which accounts for the largest share of total maize production, has reached 38.9% of the planted area, a pace below the average of the past 5 years.
In Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest maize-producing state, favourable weather conditions supported crop development.
By contrast, dry spells recorded between April and May affected part of the crop in the states of Goiás, Minas Gerais and Piauí.
Even so, second-crop maize production is expected to reach 109.43 million tonnes.
The third maize crop is forecast to produce around 2.7 million tonnes, although below-average rainfall in states such as Sergipe and Alagoas has become a growing concern for producers.
Other crops and market balances
The remaining crops, including cotton, wheat, rice, beans and sorghum, and others, account for the remaining 37.8 million tonnes of grain production.
In addition to updating production estimates, Conab also revised its projections for stocks and market balances.
Following the adjustment to the maize crop estimate, carryover stocks are now expected to reach approximately 14.5 million tonnes by 31 January 2027.
For soybeans, ending stocks were revised to 8.8 million tonnes, reflecting increased domestic processing and exports, which are forecast to reach 116.3 million tonnes.
Domestic soybean crushing is expected to total 62.57 million tonnes.
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Source : Food And Agribusiness World
