Argus lifts Russian wheat crop forecast to highest since record 2022/23
Argus raised Russia’s 2026/27 wheat production forecast to 91.2 million tonnes, the highest since 2022/23, driven by record winter wheat output of 69.1 million tonnes. However, spring wheat is forecast to decline to 22 million tonnes, with weather posing quality and yield risks.
Argus raised its forecast for Russian wheat production in 2026/27 to 91.2 million metric tons, the highest since the record 2022/23 harvest, after a virtual crop tour showed stronger winter wheat prospects.
Russia, the world’s largest exporter of the cereal, has begun its 2026 harvesting, with the government pledging to ensure stable fuel supplies in the face of shortages after Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries.
The 2026/27 Argus forecast has a range of 88.5 million to 93.9 million tons, the commodity data firm said.
That compares with an April estimate of 88.7 million tons, a 2025/26 harvest of 90.4 million tons and a record 96 million tons in 2022/23.
The revision was mainly because of a recovery in winter wheat after dry weather in the previous two seasons, it said, adding that spring wheat output is expected to fall to its lowest since 2019/20.
The decline in spring wheat reflects reduced area and a return to more normal yields after record spring wheat yields last season, Argus said.
Winter wheat output is on track to reach a record 69.1 million tons, it said, citing better crop conditions in southern Russia, particularly the Rostov region.
Spring wheat output is forecast to fall to 22 million tons, down from 29.3 million tons in 2025/26.
Argus estimated Russia’s total harvested wheat area at 25.66 million hectares (63.41 million acres) and overall wheat yields at 3.55 tons per hectare.
Heavy rain in southern Russia could hurt wheat quality, while hotter weather or delayed harvesting could weigh on yield potential, Argus said.
The Argus crop forecast is based on a virtual crop tour over June 15-19.
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Source : Alberta Farmer Express
