IGC forecasts decline in global wheat production in MY 2026/27
The IGC forecasts global wheat production at 821 million tonnes in 2026/27, down 3% year-on-year, while consumption continues rising. Strengthening El Niño conditions may increase yield risks, although Russia’s crop outlook improved. Lower output and steady demand could tighten global supplies.
The International Grains Council (IGC) in its June update forecasts global wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year at 821 million tonnes. This represents a decline of around 3% year-on-year, reflecting expected lower output across several key producing regions.
According to the outlook, the initial 2026/27 wheat balance appears somewhat tighter as production is projected to fall while consumption continues to rise. The Council notes that demand growth is expected to persist, contributing to a gradual tightening of global wheat availability.
IGC highlights weather as a key uncertainty, particularly the ongoing El Niño event, which is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year. This increases the risk of yield volatility, especially in major Southern Hemisphere producers where a significant share of global wheat output is concentrated.
At the same time, some country-level forecasts have been revised upward. Russia’s wheat production outlook was raised to 89 million tonnes from a previous estimate of 87.9 million tonnes, although this revision does not offset the broader global downward trend.
The Council stresses that the forecast remains preliminary at this stage and may change depending on weather developments and input cost dynamics. Fertiliser affordability and production costs continue to be a concern, although recent easing in input prices has provided some relief to producers.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
