FAS projects smaller Canadian wheat crop
Canada’s wheat production is forecast to decline 13% to 34.6 million tonnes in 2026–27 due to reduced planting and adverse weather. Lower output is expected to cut exports to 27.9 million tonnes, tightening global wheat supplies despite favourable durum crop prospects.
OTTAWA, ONTARIO, CANADA — A decline in planted area is expected to reduce Canadian wheat production by 13% over the previous year, according to the latest forecast from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
The agency projected wheat output in the 2026-27 marketing year, which began Aug. 1, at 34.6 million tonnes, down from last year’s record harvest of 39.9 million tonnes.
“Spring wheat planting faced setbacks in the Prairie Provinces, where most of Canada’s spring wheat is grown, due to above-average rainfall and lingering cold temperatures,” the FAS said. “Subsequently, emergence was also delayed. The consequences of late planting include the potential of reduced overall yields, and increased risk of fall frost damage.”
Despite the planting and emergence delays, local crop reports noted that as of June 29, 23% of the spring wheat crop in Saskatchewan was rated in excellent condition, 68% was in good condition, and 8% was in fair condition. However, only 70% of spring wheat in Alberta was rated good-to-excellent, primarily due to heavy rains in the northeast and central growing regions of that province.
Durum wheat planting was not delayed and the FAS projected exceptional yield in southwestern Saskatchewan and southeastern Alberta, and favorable-to-average yields elsewhere.
With a smaller crop expected, Canadian wheat exports are forecast to fall from last year’s record outgo of 29.9 million tonnes to 27.9 million in 2026-27.
The Canadian dollar was widely projected to strengthen against the US dollar in the second half of 2026, but it has instead weakened slightly, the FAS said.
“A weaker Canadian dollar disadvantages exports against key competitors and raises export prices relative to 2025,” the agency said. “Analysts generally are still expecting the Canadian dollar to gradually recover against the US dollar due to expectations of a narrowing policy gap between federal banks and a projected GDP rebound.”
Canada, which is typically is among the world’s top five wheat exporters, ranked third in 2025-26 behind Russia and the European Union.
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Source : World Grain.Com
