FAS sees further decline in Russia wheat exports
Russia’s wheat exports are forecast to fall 17% to 40 million tonnes in 2026–27, the lowest in five years, as war-related disruptions hinder shipments. The USDA raised projected carryover stocks to 19.03 million tonnes, while Ukraine’s wheat exports could decline to a 12-year low of 12.2 million tonnes.
MOSCOW, RUSSIA — Facing obstacles related to the ongoing war with Ukraine, Russia is forecast to export 40 million tonnes of wheat in the 2026-27 marketing year, the lowest level in five years and far below its record shipment of 55 million tonnes in 2023-24, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
The FAS in October lowered its estimate of Russian wheat exports in 2026-27 by 3 million tonnes from its September projection. If the FAS forecast is realized, year-on-year wheat exports from Russia would drop 17% from the 2025-26 outgo.
Russian grain exporters in August began rerouting shipments through the Baltic Sea amid Ukrainian drone attacks in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. At war since Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the two countries recently have intensified their attacks on each other’s grain storage and handling infrastructure and grain-carrying vessels in the Black Sea region, severely compromising agricultural exports, particularly wheat.
Despite its logistical export challenges, Russia is still expected to remain the world’s top wheat exporter, well ahead of the European Union, which is forecast by the FAS to export 31 million tonnes of wheat in 2026-27.
Because of the reduced exports, the FAS raised its forecast for Russian carryover wheat stocks in 2026-27 to 19.03 million tonnes from 16.09 million tonnes a month earlier. The agency’s wheat production estimate for Russia this season remained at 88 million tonnes, unchanged from its September projection.
Wheat exports from Ukraine also are expected to be impacted by the war, with the FAS anticipating shipments for 2026-27 at 12.2 million tonnes, its lowest total in 12 years.
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Source : World Grain.Com
