Brazil : Copersucar expects more cane and sugar price rebound this season
Brazil’s Copersucar expects affiliated mills to process 125–128 million tonnes of sugarcane in 2026/27, up from 108 million tonnes. Despite historically low sugar and ethanol prices, the company anticipates sugar price recovery, supported by strong demand, expanded milling capacity, and potential weather-related impacts on competing producers.
Copersucar, the world’s largest sugar and ethanol trader, estimates that its affiliated mills in Brazil will increase the volume of sugarcane processed in the 2026/27 season and expects sugar prices to recover from their current historically low levels before the end of the crop year.
In the previous season (2025/26), the 39 mills that supplied products marketed by Copersucar processed 108 million tonnes of sugarcane, up 0.9% from a year earlier. It marked the eighth consecutive year of growth, bucking the trend in Brazil’s Central-South region, which was hit by lower agricultural productivity. “The Copersucar model promotes specialization. The mills are focused on soil management,” said CEO Tomás Manzano during a press conference on the group’s latest results.
Although Copersucar also markets products sourced from third parties, the record processing volume among its affiliated mills helped the company post record net revenue of R$65.8 billion in the 2025/26 season, up 5.5% year on year. Net profit rose 56.9% to R$631 million, while return on equity remained in line with its historical average at 35%.
For the current season, four new mills acquired by affiliated companies have joined its network, while one mill has exited. The 42 mills currently affiliated with Copersucar are expected to process between 125 million and 128 million tonnes of sugarcane.
According to Manzano, the increase reflects not only the larger number of mills in Copersucar’s network but also investments in acreage expansion by existing members and expected productivity gains this season.
At the end of the 2025/26 season, Usina Diana left the Copersucar system. Meanwhile, Cocal and Ferrari acquired mills from Raízen during the season, and those facilities will begin supplying products to Copersucar in the current cycle. Viralcool also acquired a mill from Tereos.
The executive said he expects sugar volumes marketed this season to resume growth but declined to provide guidance. Last season, the company posted a record trading volume, with 15 million tonnes of sugar sold through Alvean, its sugar trading arm, and 1.9 million tonnes sold in Brazil’s domestic market. According to Manzano, the company aims to triple the volume of sugar sourced from mills outside its affiliated base, although it has not set a timetable for achieving that goal.
Market conditions, however, have become more challenging. Sugar and ethanol prices are at historically low levels, and many mills are already operating with negative margins on both products.
Currently, sugar and ethanol prices offer virtually the same returns, making it difficult to predict how mills will allocate production between the two products this season, according to Manzano. “Mills will manage the mix over the coming months,” he said.
For the sugar market, the Copersucar CEO said prices are being pressured by speculative funds and that “it does not seem sustainable for prices to remain below production costs through the end of the season.” In his view, there is no global sugar surplus, worldwide demand depends on Brazilian output, and “it is not the market’s role to force a reduction in sugar supply.”
He noted that El Niño could hurt production in countries that compete with Brazil, while its impact on Brazil’s crop remains uncertain. According to Manzano, the weather phenomenon is expected to bring rainfall through August, potentially improving cane field performance while causing disruptions to processing and exports. “Overall, it could have a more constructive effect on the market,” he said.
For the ethanol market, Manzano said conditions are being pressured by oversupply, but argued that the situation is not structural because supply could decline if mills reduce the share of cane allocated to the biofuel.
In the “very short term,” he said there is room for ethanol consumption to increase among Brazilian drivers, as only one-third of the country’s flex-fuel vehicle fleet currently uses ethanol, even though the biofuel has already become more competitive than gasoline in much of the country.
Another factor that could boost ethanol sales is the adoption of higher mandatory ethanol blends in gasoline in other countries. According to Manzano, the average ethanol blend worldwide, excluding Brazil and the United States, currently stands at 3.5%. “If it rises to 5%, which is feasible, that would represent the equivalent of half of Brazil’s production,” he said.
Manzano also pointed to opportunities for ethanol use in maritime and air transport. In aviation, however, he said the market is likely to expand “more in the long term” because of the cost of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) made from ethanol and because the technology, in his view, “still needs to advance a little further.”
To Read more about Sugar Industry continue reading Agriinsite.com
Source : Valor International
