Sugar sector faces growing stress as Uttar Pradesh output falls and climate risks mount
India’s sugar industry faces mounting pressure from lower cane availability, disease outbreaks, rising costs, and weak productivity. Uttar Pradesh’s sugar output fell to a decade low of 8.97 million tonnes, while national production remained below demand. Poor rainfall, declining acreage, and limited high-yield varieties threaten future sugar and ethanol production.
India’s sugar industry is entering a period of growing uncertainty as lower sugarcane availability, declining productivity, rising farming costs and disease outbreaks place pressure on both farmers and sugar mills, with Uttar Pradesh emerging as the biggest area of concern.
Data from the ongoing 2025–26 sugar season shows that sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh crushed 7.3 million tonnes less sugarcane by May 15 compared to the previous season. Although sugar recovery rates improved, total sugar production in the state still declined by 275,000 tonnes, Rural Voice reported.
Uttar Pradesh produced 8.97 million tonnes of sugar during the season, its lowest output in a decade. The decline is significant when compared with the state’s record production of 12.6 million tonnes in 2019–20, reflecting a nearly 30 percent fall in output.
The pressure is not limited to Uttar Pradesh. National sugar production during the 2025–26 season reached 27.47 million tonnes, remaining below domestic demand for the second consecutive year.
The lower output has reduced the possibility of sugar exports and raised concerns over future feedstock availability for ethanol production.
Industry estimates suggest that diseases such as red rot and the absence of successful high-yield replacement varieties have caused losses of nearly Rs 2,500–3,000 crore to farmers in Uttar Pradesh.
Sugar mills have also been affected by reduced cane supply, with several units unable to operate at full capacity and many ending their crushing operations ahead of schedule.
Industry stakeholders warn that if current conditions continue, the next sugar season beginning in October could face even greater challenges.
Concerns over a possible strong El Niño event and weak monsoon conditions have added further uncertainty to sugarcane cultivation.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, sugarcane planting across India reached 5.731 million hectares by May 19, marginally higher than 5.664 million hectares during the same period last year.
However, industry sources indicate that sugarcane acreage in Uttar Pradesh has declined.
Higher cultivation expenses, labour shortages, pest and disease attacks, and lower productivity have discouraged farmers from increasing cane area, with many shifting toward alternative crops and agroforestry systems.
Industry observers caution that continued below-normal rainfall and drought-like conditions could lead to a further drop in sugarcane output next season.
Tarai Kisan Union President Tajinder Singh Virk told Rural Voice that rising input costs and falling returns are weakening farmers’ interest in sugarcane cultivation.
“Three to four years ago, farmers could harvest 80–90 quintals per bigha. Today, even achieving 50 quintals per bigha has become difficult,” he said.
Virk said the decline is linked to the lack of an effective replacement for the Co-0238 sugarcane variety, which had helped drive productivity gains in Uttar Pradesh over the past decade.
He also raised concerns over the performance of research institutions and government agencies, saying farmers have not received an alternative variety capable of matching the earlier gains.
Maharashtra, another major sugar-producing state, is also facing concerns over rainfall.
The southwest monsoon reached Kerala on June 4 but progressed slower than usual and remained stalled for nearly two weeks, resulting in rainfall deficits across large parts of the country.
By June 23, India recorded rainfall 42 percent below normal, while central India reported a deficit of 64 percent.
Maharashtra received 76 percent less rainfall than normal during the same period.
Industry experts warned that inadequate rainfall during June could affect sugarcane growth due to the crop’s dependence on soil moisture and irrigation.
If rainfall remains weak, production may decline while irrigation costs for farmers rise further.
At the same time, higher diesel prices linked to rising global crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region are expected to increase cultivation expenses.
Amid mounting concerns over productivity, industry bodies are seeking stronger investment in sugarcane research.
The Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association and the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories have urged the central government to establish a Centre of Excellence for sugarcane research at the ICAR-Sugarcane Breeding Institute in Coimbatore.
The proposal is currently under consideration.
Industry representatives say the shortage of new high-yield sugarcane varieties has become a major challenge and could affect farmer incomes and the long-term future of India’s sugar and ethanol sectors.
With climate uncertainty increasing and productivity growth slowing, the sector’s future may increasingly depend on advances in research, disease control and the development of next-generation sugarcane varieties.
To Read more about Sugar Industry continue reading Agriinsite.com
Source : ChiniMandi
