EIA increases 2026 fuel ethanol production, blending forecasts
The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2026 ethanol production and consumption forecasts, reflecting steady demand growth in the biofuel sector. Fuel ethanol output is expected to average 1.1 million barrels per day, while consumption remains strong at 940,000 barrels daily, supporting continued expansion of the U.S. renewable fuel industry.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecast for 2026 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released May 12. The 2026 forecast for fuel ethanol consumption was also revised up.
The EIA currently predicts fuel ethanol production will average 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026, up from last month’s forecast of 1.09 million barrels per day. The agency currently predicts fuel ethanol production will remain at 1.1 million barrels per day next year. Fuel ethanol production averaged 1.08 million barrels per day last year.
On a quarterly basis, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 1.07 million barrels per day during the second quarter of 2026, increasing to 1.1 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 1.12 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Moving into 2027, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 1.09 million barrels per day during the first and second quarters, 1.1 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 1.13 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
Net imports of ethanol are currently expected to average -150,000 barrels per day in 2026 and -170,000 barrels per day in 2027. Both forecasts were maintained from the April STEO. Net imports of fuel ethanol averaged -140,000 barrels per day in 2025.
The EIA currently expects fuel ethanol consumption to average 940,000 barrels per day in 2026, up from last month’s outlook of 930,000 barrels per day. Fuel ethanol blending is expected to remain at 940,00 barrels per day in 2027. According to the agency, fuel ethanol consumption also averaged 940,000 barrels per day in 2025.
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Source : Ethanol Producer Magazine
