EIA increases forecast for 2025 fuel ethanol production
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) updated its 2025 fuel ethanol production forecast to 1.04 million barrels per day, up slightly from the previous forecast of 1.03 million barrels per day. The 2024 production estimate remains at 1.04 million barrels per day. Ethanol consumption is expected to remain stable, with 920,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 930,000 barrels per day in 2025. The EIA also revised its net import forecasts, projecting a continued negative import balance for both 2024 and 2025.
October 10, 2024
The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecast for 2025 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Oct. 8. The outlook for 2024 ethanol production was maintained.
The agency currently expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.04 million barrels per day this year, a forecast maintained from the September STEO. The agency expects fuel ethanol production to remain at 1.04 million barrels per day in 2025, up from last month’s forecast of 1.03 million barrels per day. Fuel ethanol production averaged 1.02 million barrels per day in 2023.
Fuel ethanol production is expected to average 1.05 million barrels per day during the final quarter of 2024. Moving into 2025, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 1.04 million barrels per day during the first and second quarters, falling to 1.02 million barrels per day during the third quarter, and rebounding to 1.05 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter.
The EIA also revised its forecast for both 2024 and 2025 net imports of fuel ethanol. The agency currently expects net imports to average negative 120,000 barrels per day this year and negative 110,000 barrels per day next year, compared to last month’s respective forecasts of negative 110,000 barrels per day and 110,000 barrels per day. Net imports of fuel ethanol were at negative 90,000 barrels per day last year.
The forecasts for fuel ethanol consumption were unchanged, with consumption expected to average 920,000 barrels per day this year and 930,000 barrels per day next year. Fuel ethanol consumption averaged 930,000 barrels per day in 2023.
Source Link : https://ethanolproducer.com/articles/eia-increases-forecast-for-2025-fuel-ethanol-production
