European wheat prices have risen by 18%. The reason is shipping risks in the Black Sea
Black Sea grain markets face rising logistics disruptions despite strong wheat harvests, with Ukraine harvesting 11–12 million tonnes (35–40% complete) and 65–70% food-grade wheat. Port attacks have cut export capacity, shifting shipments to Romania’s Constanța port while sharply increasing transport costs and reducing export competitiveness.
This is reported by the Romanian agricultural portal agrointelegența.
The grain market in the Black Sea region continues to be influenced by two main factors simultaneously: favorable prospects for agricultural production and deteriorating logistics conditions. On the one hand, the harvest in the region’s countries—even those currently at war—is proceeding at a steady pace. In Ukraine alone, by the end of this workweek, industry organizations estimate that approximately 11–12 million metric tons of wheat had been harvested, accounting for 35–40% of the country’s projected wheat production. Preliminary laboratory analyses indicate that 65–70% of the harvest will consist of food-grade wheat.
“From a commercial standpoint, market participants are no longer focused solely on the size of the harvest, but also on the ability to efficiently transport goods to export markets,” comments Yuriy Rizha, an expert in agromarketing. “However, due to ongoing attacks on port infrastructure in the Black Sea region, even optimistic forecasts indicate that, at the height of the harvest season, the effective export throughput capacity of ports in the eastern Black Sea region could be reduced by about one-third. As a result, logistics flows are being urgently rerouted toward the Danube Corridor and the Romanian port of Constanta.
Secure logistics—the key competitive advantage
This port is strengthening its position as the main regional hub. Currently, in the areas adjacent to the port, prices for feed wheat range from $215–217/metric ton, and for food-grade wheat—from $226–228/metric ton (Grade III) to $229–230/metric ton (Grade II). These prices reflect both high demand from processors and international traders, driven by rising logistics costs. The tariff for river transport between Reni, Izmail, and Constanta has risen from approximately $14–15/metric ton to approximately $28/metric ton in just two weeks. As a result, the total logistics costs borne by exporters are currently approximately 80–100% higher than at the beginning of July, which reduces the profit margin and competitiveness of Black Sea grain—primarily Ukrainian grain—on the global market.”
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Source : Logos Press
