IATA predicts 26% increase in SAF production this year
International Air Transport Association projects global sustainable aviation fuel production will rise to 2.4 million metric tons in 2026, covering just 0.8% of aviation fuel demand. IATA called growth disappointing and urged stronger policy support, renewable energy expansion, and global SAF market development to accelerate aviation decarbonisation.
The International Air Transport Association on June 6 announced its analysis shows global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production is expected to reach approximately 2.4 million metric tons (792.6 million gallons) this year, accounting for approximately 0.8% of total aviation fuel use.
IATA estimates SAF production for 2025 reached approximately 1.9 million metric tons last year, accounting for 0.6% of total aviation fuel use. While SAF production is expected to grow by more than 26% this year, IATA called that level of growth “still disappointing.”
“It looks to be another disappointing year for SAF production,” said Willie Walsh, director general of the IATA. “Five years after committing to achieve net zero by 2050, SAF production will only account for 0.8% of airline fuel use this year. The path to meeting 65% of our needs in 2050 is growing more difficult with each year of ineffectively sequenced government policies and oil companies’ manifest lack of interest. The current energy shock should add even more urgency to the development of renewables, including SAF. But we have yet to see either the energy shock, the need to develop energy independence and jobs, or the urgency to mitigate climate change materialize in the incentives needed to create a viable SAF market.”
While SAF production volumes remain low, a passenger survey completed by IATA in April shows strong and consistent support for decarbonizing air transport. According to organization, 89% of passengers believe the aviation industry should continue reducing emissions even if governments scale back their efforts. In addition, 66% of passengers said they are willing to pay more to compensate for emissions, and nearly 88% said they expect ticket prices to rise as a result of sustainable investments.
The survey also indicated that 25% of passengers prioritize the use of funds for SAF, with 23% believing investment should focus on emissions-reduction technologies. Only 10% favored the use of taxes to reduce emissions.
To accelerate the scale-up of SAF, the IATA is calling for coordinated global action across four priorities:
- Expand renewable energy supply to underpin SAF production and ensure sufficient feedstocks and clean energy are available.
- Ensure open access to fuel infrastructure, including pipelines, storage, and airport fuel systems, to enable fair competition and efficient distribution.
- Strengthen policy support through effective sequencing of production incentives and investment frameworks that provide certainty and reduce risk before any mandates are imposed.
- Enable a global SAF market with sufficient volumes at commercially viable prices critical for the airline financial and economic sustainability. A book-and-claim system is essential to transform the SAF market from local to global by making it accessible to airlines and SAF producers regardless of their domicile. A global SAF market must also be supported by harmonized standards that create enduring rules and fair competition.
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Source : Ethanol Producer Magazine
