Thailand sugar output seen falling as super El Nino threatens 2026-27 crop
Thailand’s sugarcane output could fall to 100 million tonnes in 2026-27 from 106 million tonnes due to potential Super El Niño-driven drought. Lower cane supply, shifting acreage to cassava and global pressures may lift sugar prices, while KSL urges producers to slow exports and build stocks.
Thailand’s sugar cane output could fall to around 100 million tonnes in the 2026-27 crop year from 106 million tonnes last season as a potential “super El Nino” threatens to bring severe drought, Khon Kaen Sugar Industry Plc (KSL) said.
The weather phenomenon, marked by unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures, is expected to bring erratic rainfall and water shortages across Thailand, raising concerns over cane yields and planting, Bangkok Post reported.
KSL President Chalush Chinthammit urged the government to prepare measures to manage potential water shortages. He said rainfall was expected to end within two weeks just as farmers begin planting sugar cane, leaving plantations vulnerable to prolonged dry conditions.
Thailand has around 11-12 million rai of sugar cane plantations. KSL warned that the area under cane could decline as farmers consider shifting to cassava, which is currently offering better prices.
The expected drop in cane production could tighten global sugar supplies and push prices higher. KSL forecasts global sugar prices could reach around 17 cents per pound in 2027, compared with about 16 cents currently and 14 cents previously.
Chalush said Brazil could divert more sugar cane towards ethanol production amid higher oil prices linked to prolonged conflicts in the Middle East. India’s decision to restrict sugar exports to prioritise domestic consumption could also add to global supply pressures, he said.
KSL has advised Thai sugar producers to slow exports and build inventories to protect against lower production in the coming season.
Thailand’s 2026-27 sugar crushing season is scheduled to run from December 2026 to March 2027, with 57 factories expected to process cane from farmers. The crushing campaign typically lasts 100-130 days.
KSL purchased 8.4 million tonnes of cane during the previous crop year.
The company has also reopened its fifth factory in Sa Kaeo after tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border eased. The plant has an annual crushing capacity of 500,000-600,000 tonnes.
However, unexploded ordnance in sugar cane plantations near the border remains a concern, posing risks to farmers and workers because of remnants from past armed conflicts.
To Read more about Sugar Industry continue reading Agriinsite.com
Source : ChiniMandi
