India likely to maintain rice exports despite climate risks: International Grain Council
India’s rice production and export outlook for 2026-27 remains stable, with the IGC forecasting a harvest comparable to last year despite El Niño concerns. The council maintained India’s export outlook, while noting weather risks, rising oilseed demand, and long-term global grain trade growth of 2% annually.
India’s rice production and export outlook remains intact despite concerns over a weaker monsoon and the risk of El Niño, according to the International Grains Council (IGC).
Arnaud Petit, Executive Director of the International Grains Council, said the global grains body continues to expect India to harvest a rice crop similar to last year’s and has not lowered its export forecast for the 2026-27 season, even as weather risks remain.
“We continue to expect more or less the same harvest than last year,” Petit said. “We don’t see a decrease, a sharp decrease on production.”
He said it is still early in the crop season, and while El Nino could disrupt agricultural output in several parts of the world, the impact will depend on how strong the weather pattern eventually becomes. A severe El Nino could particularly affect rice production, while countries in Southeast Asia, including Malaysia and the Philippines, may face greater risks later in the season.
“We are still expecting a very good harvest along the season with a good opportunity of trade. We are not downgrading the export capacity of India for 26-27,” he added.
On India’s growing focus on ethanol, Petit said expanding biofuel production should not be viewed as a threat to feed supplies. He noted that biofuel industries in regions such as North America, South America and Europe also produce feedstock for the livestock sector, and the bigger challenge for India is developing a well-structured biofuel ecosystem.
Petit also highlighted strong long-term demand for oilseeds, saying global soybean trade is no longer driven only by China. Demand from several other countries has become an important growth driver, although delayed rains could still affect India’s soybean crop.
Looking beyond this season, Petit expects global grain trade to soften in the near term as many importing countries have good harvests and need fewer imports. However, he believes the longer-term outlook remains positive, with global grain trade expected to grow by around 2% annually over the next five years, underlining its continued importance for global food security.
Source : CNBC TV18
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