India may have little room for sugar exports next year amid crop concerns: ISMA
India may have limited sugar export scope next year as deficient monsoon rainfall in Maharashtra and Karnataka raises concerns over the 2027 sugarcane crop. ISMA expects imports of 1 million tonnes, while ethanol diversion is likely to rely mainly on C-heavy molasses.
New Delhi: India may have limited scope for sugar exports next year as below-normal monsoon rainfall in key producing states raises concerns over the 2027 sugarcane crop, according to Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) Director General Deepak Ballani, CNBC TV18 reported.
Maharashtra and Karnataka have recorded deficient rainfall, with several areas facing drought-like conditions. While it is too early to make a firm assessment of sugar production for the next season, ISMA is conducting field-level evaluations and expects greater clarity by the second or third week of October.
“It’s slightly early to predict exactly what is the kind of production we will have,” Ballani said.
Given the uncertainty over the crop, Ballani said India was unlikely to have surplus sugar for exports next year and could instead need imports to maintain adequate domestic availability.
The government has already permitted imports of 1 million tonnes of raw sugar, of which around 800,000 tonnes has been approved by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT).
However, the commercial viability of imports will depend on global prices. Ballani said domestic sugar prices are currently below international levels, making imports unattractive for the time being. Some vessels carrying Brazilian sugar have already arrived, while the industry is waiting for international prices to become more favourable.
“We will have to primarily import this 1 million so that we have sufficient sugar in the country, but export I think is out of window,” he said.
Ethanol diversion
On ethanol production, Ballani said any diversion of sugarcane towards ethanol was expected to come primarily from C-heavy molasses rather than sugarcane juice or B-heavy molasses.
Such a strategy would enable ethanol production while limiting the impact on sugar output, particularly as uncertainty persists over the next sugarcane crop.
Festive season supplies
For the upcoming festive season, ISMA expects the government’s October sugar release quota to be around 23-25 lakh tonnes (LMT).
Ballani said bulk consumers generally build inventories ahead of the festive period, while the government has also introduced measures aimed at ensuring adequate supplies and controlling price pressures.
He said domestic sugar prices had moved closer to normal levels and expected the country to pass through the festive season without significant price volatility.
The government has already taken several measures, including stockholding limits, while current inventories are considered sufficient to meet festive-season demand, Ballani said.
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Source : ChiniMandi
