India: Rice remains price-competitive as Philippines buying supports demand
India’s rice remains highly competitive, with non-basmati exports supported by a $40–85/tonne price advantage over Pakistan and Thailand. Philippine imports rose 19% year-on-year, while Indian non-basmati exports increased 20.7%, although basmati shipments fell 9.4%.
Indias rice export prices remain highly competitive in the international market, particularly for non-basmati rice, as strong price differentials and continued buying from the Philippines support demand. On 24 September, Indian 5% rice was quoted at $382386/t, compared with $422426/t for Pakistan and $466470/t for Thailand. This gives India a price advantage of around $40/t over Pakistan and $85/t over Thailand, supporting its competitiveness across African and Asian markets.
Philippines imports strengthen demand
Philippines rice imports reached 3.89 Mnt by 17 September 2026, up 19% y-o-y, against a full-year target of around 5 Mnt. Unlike last year, the country has no import restrictions from September to December, which could support additional overseas purchases. Philippines rice production at 12.25 Mnt, while El Nio-related conditions could reduce paddy production by around 0.7 Mnt. Third-quarter production is also expected to decline by 15%, potentially increasing import requirements.
Non-basmati exports remain strong
India exported 7.438 Mnt of rice during April-July, including 5.403 Mnt of non-basmati rice, up 20.7% y-o-y, while basmati exports declined 9.4% to 2.035 Mnt. The divergence indicates that overall demand for Indian rice remains firm, although basmati shipments need to improve to regain last years pace.
Pakistan is adding competition in the basmati segment, with total rice exports at 655,000 tonnes (t) during July-August, up 20%, while basmati exports increased 43%. Meanwhile, Thailands January-July rice exports declined 15.6% in volume and 21.3% in value.
Asian prices show mixed trend
Thai 5% VFA rice was quoted at $466470/t, while the official TREA price stood at $479/t. Vietnam aromatic 5% rice remained steady at $440445/t, while Thai Jasmine was quoted at $514518/t. Myanmar 5% rice declined $6 to $457461/t. Thai Hom Mali premium and Jasmine prices, however, increased $18 during the week. CBOT November rough rice was at $16.585/cwt, holding above the $16.50/cwt level. The market remained steady on Friday but gained during the week.
Outlook
October-December will be important for basmati as new-crop arrivals increase supply pressure. India will need to recover the 9.4% export decline through stronger shipments during December-February. Gulf buying after the Saudi Food Show could provide support, although higher Pakistani supply remains a competitive factor. Overall, non-basmati has a stronger demand base, while further gains in basmati prices will depend on actual export buying.
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Source : BIGMINT
