India’s sugar exports in question amid El Niño threat and tight supplies
Scanty rainfall and potential El Niño conditions threaten India’s sugar production and future sucrose levels, limiting export prospects. Industry leaders expect ethanol expansion to absorb sugar surpluses, reducing chances of stockpiling, while prolonged export restrictions could tighten global sugar supplies through 2027.
Weather woes are stifling India’s sugar production. A good and well-distributed monsoon is important for the sucrose content of the standing sugarcane crop. Industry said that scanty rainfall might not have a huge impact on the sucrose accumulation for the 2026-27 sugarcane crop, but for the next season, the impact could be greater.
A bad sugarcane crop affects policies around sugar and ethanol, especially the sugar export policy.
Atul Chaturvedi, Director, Shree Renuka Sugars, said that sugar exports are not natural from the Indian perspective now. He said, “A few years back, when stockpiling happened, India did export a huge quantity, but with massive subsidies. With the thrust on Ethanol, all sugar surpluses have evaporated. Further, with looming El Niño, any talk of sugar exports would be foolhardy and illogical at least in the next few years”.
Chaturvedi added that the industry does not anticipate any stockpiling of sugar again as the Government is serious in reducing import dependence on fossil fuels, derisking energy dependence. The lesson was learned the hard way due to the West Asia conflict.
From the international perspective, Claudiu Covrig, Senior Sugar Analyst & Founder Covrig Analytics, said that no exports from India, at least in H2 2026 to full of 2027, means white net trade sugar flows in deficit of 1.3 mil mt for Q1-Q2 2027.
“It is hard to believe reports that India will not export sugar for at least 3 years. I feel people are exaggerating El Niño concerns. Moreover, alternative exports are still flowing to the neighbouring countries, especially to Nepal. The market has to recover, as even this year, Indian exports were not competitive.”
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Source : ChiniMandi
