July WASDE maintains outlook for 2026-’27 corn use in ethanol
The USDA maintained its 2026-27 U.S. corn use for ethanol forecast at 5.6 billion bushels but cut the 2025-26 estimate to 5.55 billion. Lower global corn production, strong export demand, reduced U.S. ending stocks, and declining EU output, particularly in France, tightened the global outlook.
The USDA maintained its forecast for 2026-’27 corn use in fuel ethanol production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released July 10. The estimate for 2025-’26 corn use in ethanol was revised down.
The current 2026-’27 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller supplies, greater exports and reduced ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are cut 125 million bushels to 2 billion, reflecting an increase infeed and residual use that is partly offset by a reduction in corn used for ethanol for 2025-’26.
Corn production for 2026-’27 is up fractionally based on updated planted and harvested area from the USDA’s June 30 Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 183.0 bushels per acre. Total use is raised 50 million bushels on an increase in exports. Exports are higher reflecting expectations of continued global demand strength. With use rising and supply falling, ending stocks are down 170 million bushels to 1.8 billion. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.40 per bushel.
The USDA maintained its forecast that 5.6 billion bushels of corn will go to fuel ethanol production for 2026-’27. The agency, however, estimates 2025-’26 corn use in ethanol at 5.55 billion bushels, down from last month’s estimate of 5.575 billion bushels. The USDA attributed the decline to observed grain crush and ethanol production data to date. Corn use for fuel ethanol was at 5.436 billion bushels for 2024-’25.
The outlook for foreign corn production is cut with declines for the EU and Kenya that are partly offset by an increase for Canada. The EU is down reflecting a steep decline for France as record heat reduces yield prospects. If realized, production for France would be the lowest in more than three decades. Production is also cut for Hungary. For Kenya, prolonged dryness during June lowers production prospects. For 2025-‘26, corn production is raised for Argentina reflecting harvest results to date
Major global trade changes for 2026-‘27 include larger corn exports for the United States and Canada. Imports are raised for the EU, Kenya, Iraq, Jordan, and Tunisia. For 2025-‘26 corn exports are raised for Argentina, Ukraine, Russia, South Africa, and the EU. Imports are reduced for China and Thailand but increased for Jordan and Iraq. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2026-‘27 are cut with reductions for China, Ukraine, and the EU that are partly offset by an increase for Canada. Global corn stocks, at 275.3 million tons, are down 600,000.
To Read more about Ethanol Industry & Bio Energy News continue reading Agriinsite.com
Source : Ethanol Producer Magazine
