MARS lowers EU wheat, rapeseed and barley yield forecast
EU crop monitor MARS lowered 2026 grain yield forecasts due to dry weather and late frosts. Soft wheat yield was revised to 6.01 t/ha and rapeseed to 3.19 t/ha, both 5% below last year. Barley yield forecasts were also reduced, though most crops remain above five-year averages.
The European Crop Monitoring Service (MARS) has revised downward most of its grain yield forecasts for the EU due to dry conditions in several regions. However, the agency emphasized that the overall condition of grain crops remains favorable.
According to the updated MARS forecast, the soft wheat yield in the EU will be 6.01 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), down from 6.05 t/ha expected a month earlier. This revised figure is 5% lower than last year’s level, but 2% higher than the five-year average.
The yield of rapeseed, the EU’s main oilseed crop, is forecast at 3.19 t/ha, down from 3.25 t/ha in the April report, also 5% lower than the previous year’s result.
The monthly MARS report explains: “Late frosts may have negatively impacted rapeseed crops in some areas of Central and Eastern Europe. Furthermore, the precipitation deficit in April in Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe slowed biomass accumulation. However, the recent and expected cooler and wetter weather in Central and Southeastern Europe could replenish soil moisture reserves and improve crop performance.”
The report also notes that, despite a moderate decline in forecast values in May, taking into account the aforementioned weather factors, most indicators remain at or above the five-year average.
Regarding barley, the projected EU yield in 2026 is 5.06 t/ha (5.15 t/ha in April), 10% below last year’s level but 1% above the five-year average. The adjustment primarily affected winter barley: the EU average forecast was lowered to 5.13 t/ha (from 5.23 t/ha a month earlier).
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
