Pakistan to harvest more wheat but less rice in 2026/27 season
The USDA forecasts Pakistan’s 2026/27 wheat harvest at 29 million tonnes, while wheat imports and exports remain restricted despite firm domestic prices. Rice production is projected at 9.1 million tonnes, with exports expected to rise to 4.9 million tonnes as new overland trade routes support regional shipments.
In the 2026/2027 wheat season, Pakistan will harvest 29 million tons of wheat, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA), according to the Zerno On-Line agency. Last season, which ended in April 2026, the harvest totaled 28.98 million tons.
Despite tight supply and rising domestic wheat prices, the ban on wheat imports remains in place. According to FAS USDA forecasts, the Pakistani government is monitoring the market situation and may lift the ban later this season. Given the ongoing ban and Pakistan’s past practices, import volumes are likely to remain insignificant.
Wheat exports are also prohibited. The security situation and the ongoing closure of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border have led to a halt in cross-border shipments of wheat flour to Afghanistan.
At the beginning of the current season, the government announced a new policy for purchasing wheat from farmers. This policy marked a shift from a state-dominated procurement system to a market-based model designed to minimize direct government intervention. The bulk of wheat was planned to be purchased from Punjab state under the new market-based model, potentially shifting procurement responsibilities to the private sector through public-private partnerships. The state offered private buyers a number of incentives, including subsidized financing, free storage at food department warehouses, and the provision of government employees to assist. However, the new procurement system has not fully implemented, and actual purchase volumes are significantly below planned targets. Negotiations between private companies and banks over financing terms have collapsed due to disagreements over interest rates.
The rice production forecast for the 2026/2027 season (November-October) has been reduced to 9.1 million tonnes due to reduced planting area. The current rice harvest amounted to 9.4 million tons.
Rice exports in the 2026/2027 season are estimated at 4.9 million tons, 2 million tons more than in the 2025/2026 season. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is creating logistical difficulties for Pakistani rice exports. The Pakistani government has launched six new land trade corridors for exports to Iran and further to the Central Asian republics.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
