Philippines : Strong ‘El Niño’ may cut rice output by 700,000 tons
Philippines has reconvened its El Niño task force after forecasts showed a 92% chance of a moderate-to-strong El Niño in late 2026. The government warned rice production could fall by 700,000 tonnes and is implementing irrigation, cloud seeding and crop diversification measures to protect food security.
Department of Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. on Thursday ordered the reconvening of the agency’s El Niño task force to prepare for a potentially severe dry spell later this year, warning of risks to crop production, farm incomes and food prices.
The state weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) projected a 92-percent chance of a moderate to strong El Niño developing in the fourth quarter of 2026, with potential effects extending into early 2027.
The Department of Agriculture (DA) estimates that rice production could decline by up to 700,000 metric tons, or about 3.5 percent of the annual target, if a strong El Niño develops, posing risks to food security and rural incomes.
Tiu Laurel cited the need for swift and coordinated action to mitigate the impact of El Niño on the agriculture sector and related value chains.
“It is imperative that we put in place interventions that mitigate the impact of El Niño on agriculture, the livelihoods of farmers, fisherfolk, and others in the value chain, as well as its adverse effects on food supply, prices, and consumers,” he said.
To address these risks, the department is implementing measures such as cloud seeding, deployment of solar-powered irrigation systems, adjustments in planting calendars to align with seasonal weather patterns and crop diversification programs aimed at stabilizing farmers’ earnings.
The DA said the proactive measures followed the severe impacts of the 2023–2024 El Niño episode, which caused agricultural losses amounting to P57.78 billion, the highest on record in recent years.
Corn was the most affected crop, followed by rice, high-value crops, cassava, coconut and fisheries.
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that overall agricultural output in 2024 declined by 2.2 percent to P483.58 billion.
The DA warned that without timely intervention, reduced production could lead to higher food prices, supply disruptions and increased pressure on vulnerable households.
Officials said strengthening early warning systems, expanding climate-resilient irrigation and promoting adaptive farming technologies remain key priorities to safeguard food supply and rural livelihoods.
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Source : Manila Standard
