Russia may export only around 1 mln tons of wheat in September
Russia’s wheat exports may fall to around 1 million tonnes or less in September 2026, sharply below 5.7 million tonnes a year earlier. Shipments, export destinations and Black Sea port flows have declined significantly, while weak exports have pressured Russian wheat prices.
Russia’s wheat exports in September 2026 may total around 1 mln tons or less, compared with 5.7 mln tons a year earlier, according to the Russian Grain Union. In the second ten-day period of September, wheat shipments fell almost fourfold to 347 thsd tons from 1.3 mln tons in the same period of 2025.
According to Elena Tyurina, head of the analytical department at the Russian Grain Union, September wheat exports are expected to reach around 1 mln tons and not exceed that level. For comparison, Russia shipped 5.7 mln tons in September last year and 1.3 mln tons in August 2026.
Total exports of the main grains in the second ten-day period of September amounted to 381 thsd tons, compared with almost 1.6 mln tons a year earlier. Barley shipments fell almost tenfold to 21.9 thsd tons, while corn exports declined 3.3 times to 11.8 thsd tons.
The geography of wheat exports also narrowed sharply, with shipments going to only eight countries compared with 29 a year earlier. Egypt remained the largest buyer with 81 thsd tons, although shipments fell 3.6 times. Turkey purchased only 6.1 thsd tons, compared with more than 200 thsd tons a year earlier.
Grain flows are increasingly shifting toward Baltic ports. In the second ten-day period of September, 135 thsd tons were shipped through Vysotsk and 85 thsd tons through Ust-Luga, while throughput via Novorossiysk fell 9.6 times to 72.5 thsd tons.
Against the backdrop of weak exports, Russian wheat FOB Novorossiysk fell to $212/t, while European wheat was priced at around $289/t. Producer prices declined to 8.9 thsd rubles/t, equivalent to about $105.7/t — one of the lowest September levels in the past eight years.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
