Russian wheat export prices fall to $260/t amid recovering shipments
Russian wheat export prices fell by $4–9/tonne last week amid global market weakness and reports of resumed Sea of Azov shipments. Despite logistical disruptions, July–October exports reached an estimated 10.3 million tonnes, while IKAR expects October and November shipments to exceed 3 million tonnes each.
Russian wheat export prices declined last week in line with the global market amid reports that vessels were potentially being allowed to leave the Sea of Azov again and expectations of a large harvest in Southern Hemisphere countries. Reuters reported this, citing analysts’ estimates.
According to consultancy IKAR, by the end of last week, Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content shipped from the Baltic ports of Vysotsk and Ust-Luga was priced at $260/t FOB for December delivery, down $4/t from the previous week. SovEcon estimated the price of similar wheat shipped via the Baltic Sea at $261/t, down $9/t week on week.
Meanwhile, Russia is increasing shipments via alternative routes, although export logistics remain significantly disrupted. According to a preliminary estimate by Rusagrotrans, Russia exported 10.3 mln tons of wheat in July-October, with the share of Baltic ports potentially reaching 65%. October exports are estimated at around 3 mln tons.
Analysts expect shipments to increase further. IKAR raised its estimate of October wheat exports to more than 3 mln tons, compared with its previous forecast of 2.8-3 mln tons, and expects November exports to also exceed 3 mln tons. SovEcon increased its October export estimate by 100 thsd tons to 2.9 mln tons.
Price movements were also influenced by reports that Russian vessels carrying grain had been allowed to leave the Sea of Azov, where shipping had been completely restricted since July 10. However, the resumption of shipments does not yet mean that logistical problems have been fully resolved, and Russian exporters continue to use alternative routes to deliver grain.
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Source : UkrAgroConsult
