S&P Global: Egypt’s wheat imports set to slow as global prices hit five month low
Egypt’s wheat market is entering a softer phase as record imports, abundant Black Sea supplies and rising domestic procurement drive prices to a five-month low. With private traders expanding their role and stocks remaining comfortable, wheat imports are expected to ease in 2026/27 despite steady demand for the staple grain.
EGYPT – Wheat prices fell to a five month low at the end of June as fresh supplies from the Black Sea harvest entered the market and buying from major importers, including Egypt, weakened, according to S&P Global.
Platts assessed its Milling Wheat Marker at US$229 per metric tonne on June 30, the lowest level since January 30. The Platts CIF East Mediterranean basis Egypt 12.5% assessment also fell to US$249 per metric tonne.
Egypt ended the June to July marketing year with its highest annual wheat purchases on record, importing more than 14 million metric tonnes. However, buyers said demand has slowed as importers work through existing stocks and focus only on near term requirements.
Local wheat prices have fallen to EGP13,000 per metric tonne (US$265 per metric tonne), down from EGP14,200 per metric tonne (US$290 per metric tonne) a month earlier. Market participants also said the Egyptian pound has strengthened to about EGP49 against the US dollar after reaching nearly EGP55 in April.
“Storing wheat will be hard,” one buyer said, adding that some holders may lower prices to clear stocks.
Another importer said, “The local situation is terrible.”
Private companies also continue to take a larger share of Egypt’s wheat imports. Data from LATT Shipping and Trading Co. showed they accounted for 62.7% of imports during the 2025 to 2026 marketing year, while government purchases made up 37.3%.
“The state will still import to cover demand, but private participation is expected to grow over time,” a third importer said.
The government has bought 4.7 million metric tonnes of wheat from local farmers and aims to reach 5 million metric tonnes before the procurement season ends in mid August. As local supplies increase, traders expect Egypt’s wheat imports to ease to between 12 million and 13 million metric tonnes during the 2026 to 2027 marketing year.
“We will keep importing, just a bit less,” a fourth buyer said.
Officials are also considering changes to the bread subsidy programme. One proposal would price subsidised bread at EGP1.5 per loaf (US$0.03) while eligible citizens receive EGP325 (US$6.63) each month. “This is cheaper for the government when food subsidy [budget] is EGP140 billion per year,” a fifth importer said. The annual subsidy budget equals about US$2.86 billion.
This follows a sharp rise in Egypt’s wheat prices in March, when a weaker Egyptian pound, higher freight costs and supply problems linked to the conflict in the Middle East pushed import costs higher.
At the time, the Egyptian pound fell to EGP52.39 against the US dollar, CIF Egypt 12.5% wheat bids reached US$263 per metric tonne and freight from Russia increased to US$24 per metric tonne from US$21 per metric tonne.
Market participants also said higher fuel costs, payment delays at some banks in Dubai and higher soybean oil prices added to pressure across the grain market.
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Source : Milling MEA
