Ukraine’s Grain Exports Could Rise by More Than 10 million Tons as Harvest Forecast Increases to 84.6M Tons
The Ukrainian Grain Association forecasts Ukraine’s 2026 grain and oilseed harvest at 84.6 million tonnes, enabling exports of nearly 52 million tonnes in 2026/27. However, export growth depends on secure maritime logistics and an end to Russian attacks on critical infrastructure.
Analysts at the Ukrainian Grain Association expect Ukraine’s grain and oilseed harvest in 2026 to reach 84.6 million tons. Thanks to favorable weather conditions, experts increased their estimate by 1 million tons compared with the previous forecast.
With such a harvest, exports in the new 2026/2027 season could potentially reach almost 52 million tons. In the previous marketing year, Ukraine exported 41.1 million tons.
However, the association emphasized that this optimistic scenario is possible only if maritime logistics are fully restored, and Russia stops its constant attacks on Ukrainian transport infrastructure, energy facilities and vessels entering ports.
For individual crops, Ukraine’s wheat harvest in 2026 is expected to reach 23.7 million tons, compared with 22.5 million tons last year. Wheat exports in the 2026/2027 season could rise to 18 million tons, up from 14 million tons. Farmers are also expected to harvest 32.1 million tons of corn, compared with 31.1 million tons last year. Corn exports could increase from 21 million tons to 27 million tons. The sunflower harvest in 2026 is forecast at 13.3 million tons, compared with 11.1 million tons last year. Traditionally, almost the entire sunflower crop is processed domestically in Ukraine.
The updated forecast shows that Ukraine’s agricultural sector remains resilient and capable of expanding exports even during the war. However, the real export potential will depend less on the harvest itself and more on the security of ports, maritime routes and energy infrastructure, which remain key targets of Russian attacks.
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Source : UBN News
