Wheat prices rise in India after four-year export ban is lifted
India’s wheat prices rose by over ₹200 per 100 kg after the government resumed exports following a four-year ban, with Mumbai prices reaching ₹3,100. CAIT urged reconsideration amid concerns over retail inflation, while El Niño risks threaten the upcoming rabi crop and Indian wheat remains globally uncompetitive.
Domestic wheat prices in India have risen after the government lifted a four-year ban on exports of wheat and processed products, including flour and semolina, in late August. According to the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT), wholesale prices increased by more than 200 rupees per 100 kg following the resumption of exports.
At major markets in Mumbai, wheat prices rose from 2,900 to 3,100 rupees per 100 kg within several days, an increase of nearly 7%. The average retail wheat price in India currently stands at 31.58 rupees/kg, although prices vary between 22 and 55 rupees/kg depending on the region.
Despite the reopening of exports, Indian wheat remains relatively uncompetitive on the global market. Market participants estimate that current Indian prices are around $30/t higher than those offered by major international suppliers. Meanwhile, global wheat prices have recently approached a three-year high.
Weather conditions are another source of uncertainty for India’s domestic market. El Niño is expected to persist at least until March 2027, creating risks for the upcoming rabi crop cycle, particularly due to the possibility of insufficient rainfall.
Amid rising wholesale prices, CAIT has called on the government to reconsider its decision to resume wheat exports. Traders are concerned that if the current price trend continues, higher wholesale prices could gradually feed through to the retail market.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
