Brazil to boost wheat imports to 7 mln tons
Brazil’s 2025 wheat production is projected to drop 4.5% to 7.536 million tonnes due to a 19.9% reduction in planting area. Strong demand and lower domestic output are expected to push imports to 7 million tonnes, the highest since 2013, with Argentina likely gaining market share amid competitive prices.
Brazil’s wheat harvest is ongoing, but reduced domestic production and strong demand are set to drive up imports. According to Agrostat, the Ministry of Agriculture’s data system, Brazil imported 6.64 million tonnes of wheat last year. This year, imports are projected to reach 7 million tonnes—a level not seen since 2013. The National Supply Company (Conab) reported a 19.9% reduction in Brazil’s wheat planting area for 2025, with output expected to drop 4.5% to 7.536 million tonnes.
Nelson Montagna, president of São Paulo’s Wheat Sector Chamber, and Douglas Araújo, a wheat trader at CJ International Brasil, both forecast imports at 7 million tonnes. Argentina is likely to increase its market share, with an expected harvest of 20 million tonnes at competitive prices, limiting other exporters’ participation. Analyst Luiz Carlos Pacheco from TF Consultoria Agroeconômica predicts 6.7 million tonnes, noting that the reduced planting area is a key driver. “Even if production hasn’t dropped significantly yet, the shrinking area signals tighter supply risks next year,” said Paloma Venturelli, president of Paraná-based Moinho Globo.
Falling prices are discouraging farmers: Cepea/Esalq data shows bread-quality wheat prices in Paraná dropped 8.8% in September to R$1,284.38 per tonne, while soft wheat in Rio Grande do Sul fell 4.4% to R$1,227.33 per tonne. Expectations of a record global crop and the ongoing harvest are further pressuring domestic prices, raising supply concerns. Venturelli warns that without improved productivity, Brazil could face a strained supply situation.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
