Global sugar market faces tighter outlook as Europe, India production weigh on supplies
Global sugar supplies could tighten next season as European and Indian production declines, while Brazil faces cane and weather uncertainties. Europe may require 3.2–3.5 million tonnes of imports, while Sucden forecasts Brazil’s Centre-South output at 41 million tonnes.
New Delhi: The global sugar market could face tighter supplies in the coming season as lower production in Europe and India, uncertainty over Brazil’s cane crushing and declining export availability from major suppliers reshape the global trade outlook, experts said during a panel discussion on “Global Sugar & Ethanol Outlook” ahead of the ISMA Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Conference 2026.
Claudia Covrig, Senior Market Analyst at CovrigAnalytics, said the outlook for the next season remains highly uncertain, with production and consumption scenarios capable of shifting the global market balance significantly.
According to Covrig, a combination of higher consumption, lower Indian and Brazilian production and stronger-than-expected output from China could alter the global surplus-deficit position by nearly 1.9 million tonnes in a bearish scenario. On the other hand, a combination of adverse developments could push the market towards a deficit of around 1.7 million tonnes.
Europe emerges as major concern
Covrig identified Europe as one of the strongest bullish factors for the global sugar market. European sugar beet acreage has fallen by more than 20% over the past two years, while poor weather conditions have further affected production.
France alone could see production decline by around 1 million tonnes, while total European output could be around 3 million tonnes lower year-on-year, she said.
As a result, the European Union and the UK may need to import at least 3.2 million tonnes of sugar, with the requirement potentially rising to 3.4–3.5 million tonnes.
India’s production remains key
India will remain another major factor for the global market, with uncertainty surrounding its upcoming sugar production and export availability.
Covrig said India’s output in the next season could be at least 2 million tonnes lower than the current season. Depending on production and domestic availability, India could potentially need to enter the international market for imports in the following season.
She estimated India’s current stocks at around 4.3 million tonnes, including approximately 300,000 tonnes of imported sugar.
Brazil remains the biggest uncertainty
Brazil continues to be a major swing factor for global sugar supplies. Covrig said the country lost around four days of crushing in September due to rainfall, and further adverse weather could reduce production.
The amount of cane carried over into the next season will also be critical. A large carryover could affect sugar recovery and the sugar mix during the early part of the new crushing season.
Covrig said Brazil could emerge as both a bullish and bearish factor depending on how much cane is crushed and how production develops. Ethanol prices will also be important in determining Brazil’s sugar mix, particularly as domestic fuel demand and government policy evolve.
White sugar availability to tighten
The outlook for white sugar is particularly firm, with export availability expected to decline. India is not expected to contribute significant volumes to the international white sugar market, while European exports could also remain limited.
Covrig said Europe’s growing import requirement could increase competition for available white sugar. Although Pakistan’s decision to allow additional exports has weighed on the white sugar premium, she said the additional volumes may not be sufficient to resolve the expected supply tightness in the first and second quarters of the next season.
Sucden sees Brazil production at 41 mt
Dimitri Varsano, Co-Global Head of Sugar Trading at Sucden, said forecasting Brazil’s Centre-South production remains particularly difficult because of uncertainty over cane availability, agricultural yields and the sugar mix.
He said Sucden estimates that Centre-South Brazil needs to produce around 37 million tonnes of sugar in 2026-27 to balance trade flows through April 2027. Production above that level would create a surplus, he said.
For the full 2026-27 season, Sucden currently estimates Centre-South Brazil’s sugar production at around 41 million tonnes, supported by strong acreage and expectations of a high sugar mix, although weather remains a major uncertainty.
The panel highlighted that the global sugar market will remain highly sensitive to developments in Brazil, India and Europe, while China, Thailand, Indonesia and Pakistan could also significantly influence import demand and export availability in the coming season.
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Source : ChiniMandi
