Bangladesh : Wheat imports to fall on higher stocks, cooling demand
Bangladesh’s wheat imports are set to fall 10.8% to 66 lakh tonnes in MY 2026/27 due to higher carryover stocks and stable global supply. However, rising demand from food, bakery, and feed sectors keeps consumption growing, highlighting continued import dependence amid weak domestic production and shifting dietary patterns.
Wheat imports are projected to decline in the 2026/27 marketing year (May 2026 – April 2027), amid expectations of higher carryover stocks from the previous year.
Wheat imports have surged in recent years, driven by lower international prices, steady global supply chains and declining domestic production.
The projections were revealed in the Bangladesh Grain and Feed Annual report released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
For MY 2026/27, USDA local analyst (Post) forecasts wheat imports at 66 lakh tonnes – down 10.8% from the MY 2025/26 estimate, assuming larger carryover stocks in the domestic market, continued low global prices and stable supply logistics.
Imports rose sharply in MY 2025/26 to an estimated 74 lakh tonnes, largely due to lower international prices.
However, elevated ending stocks are expected to dampen demand, leading to a decline in imports in MY 2026/27, the report said. Wheat is Bangladesh’s second most consumed staple after rice, often serving as an alternative.
Domestic production meets only about 10% of total demand, suggesting that overall consumption will continue to grow.
In addition to food use, demand for coarse wheat flour (aata) is also rising in the feed industry.
Agricultural economist Jahangir Alam told Daily Sun that import volumes increased over the past two years due to smooth supply and lower global prices.
“Many pastry, cake, biscuit, cereal and pasta industries have expanded in the country. However, exports of these products have not grown significantly, which has reduced their demand for wheat. As a result, imports may decline,” he said.
He also warned that shrinking domestic wheat production could increase long-term import dependency, posing risks for the economy.
For MY 2025/26, Post maintained its import estimate at 74 lakh tonnes, around 19% higher than the previous year.
Bangladeshi millers and traders imported large volumes throughout the year, supported by low prices and steady demand from both consumers and the feed sector.
According to the USDA local office contacts and data from the Ministry of Food, Bangladesh had imported 63 lakh tonnes of wheat as of 15 March in MY 2025/26.
Of this, the private sector accounted for 92% of imports, while the government imported the remaining 8%.
Imports are expected to reach 74 lakh tonnes by the end of the marketing year, with an additional 11 lakh tonnes anticipated in the remaining months.
Since India imposed a wheat export ban in May 2022, Bangladeshi importers have diversified sourcing.
In MY2025/26, Argentina emerged as a major supplier due to competitive pricing, alongside Canada, Ukraine, Russia, the United States and Brazil.
Bangladesh primarily imports soft wheat from Russia, Ukraine and European Union countries for use in cakes, cookies and other baked goods. This type of wheat has lower protein and gluten content.
For bread and pasta production, millers prefer Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat for its high gluten content.
US Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat offers comparable quality, though Canadian wheat remains more competitive due to lower prices and market perception.
On 20 July 2025, the government signed a memorandum of understanding with US Wheat Associates to import up to seven lakh tonnes of US wheat annually over five years.
As of 15 March 2026, Bangladesh had already purchased 6.60 lakh tonnes under the agreement.
The first shipment arrived on 26 October 2025, with officials reporting that the quality exceeded expectations.
The wheat had a protein content of 13.5%, compared to the minimum contracted specification of 11.5%, along with satisfactory moisture levels and kernel weight.
Consumption trends
For MY 2026/27, Post forecasts food, seed and industrial (FSI) consumption at 80 lakh tonnes, up 1.3% from MY 2025/26, driven by rising demand for aata and maida at both household and industrial levels.
FSI consumption is estimated at 79 lakh tonnes in MY 2024/25. Wheat flour is widely used in households, restaurants, bakeries and the broader food industry.
Changing dietary patterns, particularly in urban areas, have led to a gradual shift from rice to wheat-based foods such as roti.
Demand for bakery products is also increasing, supported by a growing middle class and expanding hospitality sector.
The biscuit, noodle and pasta industries are also expanding, consuming significant quantities of wheat flour.
Exports and feed use
Bangladesh is also exporting wheat-based products, with key markets including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Malaysia, the United States and the United Kingdom, driven largely by expatriate demand.
In FY26, export earnings from wheat-based products are estimated at $200 million. Major exports include bread, pastries, cakes, biscuits, cereals and pasta.
Wheat is also used in the poultry, aquaculture and cattle feed industries, where it accounts for around 4%-5% of feed rations.
For MY 2026/27, feed consumption is projected at 3.10 lakh tonnes, up from three lakh tonnes in MY 2024/25, reflecting growing demand in the feed sector.
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Source : Daily Sun
