BIRC 2026 looks beyond traditional markets for next $10 Bn in global rice demand
India is seeing rapid growth in rice shipments to emerging markets such as Jordan and Turkey, highlighting changing trade routes and sourcing patterns. With global rice trade projected to reach 81 million tonnes by 2035, exporters are increasingly targeting smaller, high-growth markets.
Where will the next major growth markets in global rice trade come from? That question will be at the centre of the Bharat International Rice Conference (BIRC) 2026 this October, as exporters, international buyers and trade experts examine emerging destinations that could shape the next phase of global rice trade. At its session, “Top 10 Rice Markets to Watch in 2027: Demand Signals and Entry Strategies,” BIRC 2026 will challenge a conventional assumption in rice exports: that the world’s largest importing markets are automatically the best opportunities for exporters. Recent Indian export trends show why that assumption may need to be reconsidered.
Indian rice shipments to Jordan have increased nearly eight-fold, while Indian basmati exports to Turkey have doubled. Neither country would normally feature among the first markets considered in a conventional ranking of the world’s largest rice importers. Yet changing trade routes, regional connectivity and shifting sourcing patterns have rapidly increased their commercial relevance. The developments highlight an important question for exporters: is market size really the best measure of opportunity?
Where will the next $10 billion of rice demand come from?
Global rice trade is expected to expand significantly over the coming decade. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035 projects global rice trade to increase by around 22 million tonnes over the period, reaching approximately 81 million tonnes by 2035. Africa is expected to account for a growing share of global rice imports, with its share projected to rise from around 35 per cent currently to about 45 per cent by 2035. Demand patterns across Asia and other regions are also expected to change as consumption, production, trade policies and supply chains evolve. At prevailing international trade values, the additional trade represents a potential opportunity worth several billion dollars.
For exporters, the strategic question is becoming increasingly relevant: where will the next $10 billion of global rice demand come from, and which suppliers will enter those markets before competition intensifies? BIRC 2026 will put this question at the heart of its New Markets discussion.
Why Turkey and Jordan matter ?
The recent performance of Turkey and Jordan illustrates how quickly the commercial importance of a market can change. During disruption to direct trade with Iran, Indian shipments to Iran declined sharply. At the same time, the wider Middle Eastern rice trade remained active, with alternative routes and sourcing patterns emerging. Indian shipments to Jordan increased nearly eight-fold, while basmati exports to Turkey doubled. The increase in Jordanian shipments does not necessarily mean that domestic consumption increased by the same magnitude. Part of the growth reflects changes in regional trade routes and the redistribution of trade flows. For exporters, however, this is itself valuable market intelligence.
A country can become strategically important because it is a growing consumption centre, a regional distribution hub, an alternative trade corridor or a higher-realisation market. It can also become attractive when existing suppliers face disruption or when a particular Indian variety fits local requirements. This means that a big market and a good market are not always the same thing.
BIRC 2026 to examine market attractiveness
The BIRC 2026 New Markets session will therefore look beyond a simple ranking of import volumes. The discussion will examine demand growth, import dependence, competition from other origins, potential price realisation, product suitability, freight costs, import duties, regulatory requirements and payment risks. The objective is to understand not only whether a country imports rice, but whether it offers a commercially viable opportunity for an Indian exporter. A smaller market with faster growth, limited competition and better margins may, in some cases, offer a more attractive opportunity than a much larger market where competition is intense and margins are thin.
From identifying a market to entering it. For exporters, identifying a promising country is only the beginning. The more difficult questions are about execution. Who are the major buyers? Which varieties do they require? What specifications and packaging are expected? What price can the market support? Which distributors control access? What certifications and documentation are required? How can an exporter secure the first commercial order? BIRC 2026 has designed its New Markets session around these practical questions. The focus will be on helping exporters understand the opportunity, product fit, entry barriers, buyer requirements and route to market for shortlisted destinations.
The conference’s structured networking programme will complement the session by facilitating organised B2B meetings between Indian exporters, millers and overseas buyers based on actual commercial requirements.
India’s diversification challenge
India already exports rice to more than 170 countries, but a significant share of trade remains concentrated in established destinations. For an industry with India’s production and processing capacity, future export growth cannot depend indefinitely on selling larger quantities to the same markets. Geographical diversification and better identification of high-value opportunities will increasingly matter. The experience of the 26 priority markets identified around BIRC 2025 provides an indication of what diversification can achieve. Between November 2025 and March 2026, exports to the 26-market basket reached approximately Rs 23,476 crore and 4.79 million tonnes, with volumes 5.6 per cent above the corresponding three-year average. The next phase of India’s rice export growth may therefore be less about simply finding more countries and more about identifying the right opportunities within individual markets.
“The exporter who enters before the market becomes obvious wins” Dev Garg, Vice-President of the Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF), said the traditional approach to market selection needs to evolve. “The traditional approach has been to look at the largest import markets and assume that those are automatically the best opportunities. We want to challenge that thinking,”
Garg said. “Turkey and Jordan are excellent examples. Very few people would have identified them as standout markets at the beginning of the year, yet the trade data changed dramatically.” Garg said the figures also demonstrate why headline growth numbers need to be analysed carefully. “Part of this growth has resulted from changes in the Iranian trade route. But that itself is market intelligence. A country may matter because of consumption, because of distribution, because it gives access to another geography, or because the competitive environment suddenly changes.”
According to Garg, the value of the BIRC 2026 session lies beyond simply identifying ten countries. “Anyone can produce a list of the ten largest rice importers. The real value is understanding which markets an Indian exporter can actually enter, what product they should take there, what price they can realise, what risks they will face and who they need to meet to make the first transaction happen.”
The next opportunity may not be obvious
Established markets across the Middle East, Africa and Asia will continue to remain important to India’s rice export industry. But the next phase of growth could come from a wider range of destinations, including markets that are currently smaller but are showing strong changes in demand, sourcing or trade connectivity.
For exporters, the advantage may lie in identifying these markets before they become crowded. That is the proposition BIRC 2026 will put before the global rice industry at its New Markets session. The Bharat International Rice Conference (BIRC) 2026 will be held at Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi, from October 23 to 25. The conference will bring together Indian exporters, rice millers, international buyers, policymakers, trade experts and other stakeholders to examine the opportunities and challenges shaping global rice trade. The central question for exporters is increasingly clear: the next major rice opportunity may not be the market that is largest today. It may be the market that is growing fastest, changing most rapidly or opening up to new suppliers. BIRC 2026 aims to help the industry identify those opportunities and, importantly, understand how to turn them into actual trade.
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Source : Agro Spectrum
