China becomes Vietnam’s second-largest rice export market
Vietnam exported 6.4 million tonnes of rice worth $3.11 billion in January–September 2026, down 6.1% in volume and 10.9% in value. The Philippines remained the largest buyer, while China became second. Vietnam expects 2026 exports near 7.74 million tonnes, despite lower prices and market concentration risks.
According to the latest report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Vietnam exported 377,400 tons of rice worth $205.6 million in September.
In the first nine months of 2026, Vietnamese businesses exported around 6.4 million tons of rice worth $3.11 billion. Compared with the same period last year, export volume fell 6.1%, while value declined 10.9%.
The average rice export price during the nine-month period was estimated at $484.8 per ton, down 5.1% year on year.
In terms of export markets, data updated through the end of August 2026 showed that the Philippines remained the largest buyer of Vietnamese rice, accounting for 40.9% of exports. However, rice exports to the market fell 16.8%.
Notably, China rose from fourth place in the same period of 2025 to become Vietnam’s second-largest rice export market this year, accounting for 17.4% of total exports during the first eight months.
In just eight months, China spent nearly $505 million on around 1.03 million tons of Vietnamese rice. In the same period last year, it imported just over 565,000 tons worth $286.7 million.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment said Chinese demand for broken rice had increased sharply, mainly for use in animal feed production.
Vietnam’s rice exports to Iraq surged 98.9-fold year on year in the first eight months of 2026. Despite the sharp increase, export value to the market remained relatively modest at nearly $14 million.
In its assessment of rice supply, demand, trade and prices for the 2026-2027 crop year, the ministry said the recovery in exports to Iraq showed there was still significant room for market diversification, which should be pursued more proactively and sustainably in the final months of the year.
The ministry also noted that Vietnam’s increasing concentration on the Philippine and Chinese markets, which together accounted for more than 64% of total rice exports, offered a short-term advantage but also heightened the risk of dependence on a limited number of markets.
It said Vietnam should gradually diversify its rice export destinations.
According to estimates by the Vietnam Food Association, the country is expected to export 400,000 tons of rice in October, followed by around 220,000 tons in November and 268,300 tons in December.
Total rice exports in 2026 are forecast to reach nearly 7.74 million tons, generating around $3.94 billion in revenue. Export value would be down 4% from 2025, largely because average export prices were relatively low in the first months of the year.
If exports reach nearly 7.74 million tons as projected, Vietnam could remain the world’s second-largest rice exporter by volume, behind only India.
The outlook for export prices in the final months of the year is being supported by several factors. The global rice supply-demand balance for the 2026-2027 crop year is forecast to shift into deficit, while global rice trade could reach a record high.
The Philippines recently confirmed that it would not impose an import suspension in 2026 and would continue importing rice to increase its reserves. This is positive news for Vietnam, which currently accounts for the majority of rice imported by the Philippine market.
China, meanwhile, has recorded a sharp increase in import volume, opening substantial opportunities for Vietnamese rice used as a raw material, broken rice and glutinous rice.
In the premium segment, certified high-quality, low-emission Vietnamese rice has fetched more than $1,000 per ton in Japan, the European Union and Australia, underscoring the potential to increase the added value of Vietnamese rice.
Global supply could also be affected by El Niño, monsoon conditions in India and the area planted with Kharif rice. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could put additional pressure on energy and maritime transport costs.
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Source : VietNamNet News
