Global sugar market adjusts to India’s export exit as weather concerns mount
India has halted sugar exports until September 30 to prioritise domestic needs. GlobalData forecasts a 1.8-million-tonne global sugar deficit in 2026-27, partly due to lower Indian production amid a weak monsoon. Experts warn that El Niño-related weather risks could challenge India’s balance between domestic supply, ethanol targets and future export prospects.
India is not exporting sugar in the ongoing season, following the Government’s order banning exports until 30th September to prioritise domestic requirements.
Saira Ali, Economist, Global Sugar Research at GlobalData Agri, said they estimate a moderate global deficit for 2026-27 of 1.8 million tonnes, due to impressive 2025-26 sugar seasons in the EU+UK, China, Brazil, etc.
“The deficit has been driven by production estimates being reduced in India; the current weak monsoon, which is below average, is also driving yield estimates down,” she stated.
Ali said that the market has at least partially priced in the fact that India will not be a major sugar exporter, as production estimates have been coming off for some time.
“We are in a period where certain markets that are usually deficit had good seasons last year, which has shrunk the import burden in general, so that is something to keep in mind”, she said.
ChiniMandi has been speaking to experts regarding India’s sugar export exposure in view of the weather threat.
The voices, though, raise a concern about the evolving El Niño and below-average monsoon rains. The discussions underscore the fine balance that the country is striving to achieve between maintaining domestic sugar availability, supporting ethanol blending targets, and preserving India’s role in global sugar trade amid climate uncertainties.
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Source : ChiniMandi
