IGC: Flour trade drops to lowest in five years
Global wheat flour trade fell to a five-year low in 2025–26 as major importers, including Iraq and Sudan, shifted toward domestic milling and grain imports. While Turkey’s exports declined, Kazakhstan and Argentina gained market share. India is expected to boost flour exports in 2026–27 after lifting export restrictions.
LONDON, ENGLAND — Global wheat flour trade in the 2025-26 marketing year, which ended June 30, is estimated to have been the lowest in five years, according to the International Grains Council (IGC).
The IGC report, released on Sept. 17, estimated total shipments of 15.1 million tonnes (wheat equivalent) in 2025-26, which was 900,000 tonnes lower than the previous estimate made in March.
It said the downward revision was “mainly because recent purchases by two major importers, Iraq and Sudan, fell short of expectations, as both countries rebuilt domestic milling capacity and shifted back toward grain imports.”
With volumes constrained by expanding domestic capacity and protective policy measures, Iraq’s imports are estimated to have fallen by nearly 80% year on year to 300,000 tonnes, the lowest level in 21 years, the Council said. This contributed to flour imports in the Middle East contracting for the third consecutive year to a 14-year low of 1.8 million tonnes, the IGC noted.
The sharp decline in shipments to Sudan, coupled with reduced demand from Ethiopia, contributed to a sizeable drop in sub-Saharan Africa imports in 2025-26. Deliveries to that region declined by 33% from the prior season’s eight-year high, dropping to 2.2 million tonnes, the IGC said.
Other major flour importers also have been making efforts to boost their domestic milling industries. Afghanistan, the world’s No. 1 flour importer, saw its intake drop by 25,000 tonnes year on year to 3.82 million tonnes, while Uzbekistan is estimated to have imported nearly 200,000 tonnes less than in 2024-25.
On the export front, year-on-year declines were record across several key exporters, with Egypt accounting for the largest drop as shipments fell from 1.94 million tonnes in 2024-25 to 635,000 tonnes. Its key buyer, Sudan, shifted back to grain purchases, mainly from Russia, the IGC said.
Turkey, the perennial leader in flour exports, saw shipments drop for the second consecutive year in 2025-26, to 3.4 million tonnes, the lowest total since 2012-13.
“Slower buying in Iraq was only partly compensated by firmer demand from Cuba, Indonesia, Syra and parts of sub-Saharan Africa,” the IGC said, referring to the drop in Turkish exports.
In contrast, the IGC noted an increase in exports from Argentina (748,000 tonnes) and Kazakhstan (2.95 million tonnes) “amid ample domestic wheat availability and strong demand from some neighboring countries.”
The IGC said prospects for world flour trade in 2026-27 have deteriorated markedly since the initial outlook published in March, with only a fractional uptick in volumes from the previous year expected. Volume is pegged at 15.3 million tonnes, a 900,000-tonne decline from the previous forecast.
Among the IGC’s predicted highlights for the 2026-27 season are:
– Purchases by Iraq will remain at historically low levels, contributing to a further decline in Middle East flour imports.
– Turkey’s exports are forecast to rise 200,000 tonnes to 4.3 million tonnes but will likely remain constrained by subdued demand from several key destinations.
– Egypt’s exports also are expected to edge higher amid efforts to expand into new African markets.
– India is expected to supply more flour to overseas markets following the recent removal of export restrictions
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Source : World Grain
