Philippine’s rice output set for second quarter recovery
Philippines expects palay production to recover 5.7% year-on-year in Q2 2026 to 4.63 million metric tons after a weak first quarter. Central Luzon remained the top-producing region, while improved planting conditions and government support are expected to strengthen agricultural recovery.
Philippine palay production is expected to recover in the second quarter of 2026, with output projected at 4.63 million metric tons from April to June. According to preliminary estimates from the Philippine Statistics Authority, this reflects a 5.7 percent increase from the 4.38 million metric tons recorded during the same period in 2025.
The forecast follows a weak first quarter, when production fell 6.3 percent year over year to 4.4 million metric tons, the lowest output for the period since 2020. The decline was driven by a 5.6 percent contraction in harvested area to 1.08 million hectares and a slight dip in average yield to 4.07 metric tons per hectare.
Production remained concentrated in key rice-producing regions, led by Central Luzon with 826,100 metric tons, or 18.8 percent of the total output. Western Visayas followed with 450,150 metric tons and Cagayan Valley with 421,910 metric tons. Together, these three regions contributed 38.6% of the quarter’s total production.
While Western Visayas recorded the largest harvested area at 163,810 hectares, Central Luzon remained the most productive region with a yield of 5.31 metric tons per hectare. The Ilocos Region and Cagayan Valley followed with yields of 5.06 and 5.02 metric tons per hectare, respectively.
Overall, the value of Philippine agriculture and fisheries production fell 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2026, totaling P437.52 billion at constant 2018 prices. This reversed the 2.1 percent growth seen in the first quarter of 2025. The crop sector, representing 55.7 percent of total agricultural output, saw its value drop 2.4 percent to P243.62 billion, primarily due to the slump in palay harvests.
Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said the sector is expected to recover in the coming months as rice output improves and the livestock and poultry sectors maintain gains.
Tiu Laurel noted that planting conditions are normalizing and government interventions are taking effect.
He added that the strength of the livestock and poultry sectors is helping cushion overall output and providing stability to the national food supply.
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Source : Manila Standard
