Sugarcane production expected to grow 5.3% in Brazil
Brazil’s sugarcane output is projected to rise 5.3% to 709.1 million tonnes in 2026/27, boosting ethanol production to a record 40.69 billion liters. However, sugar output may dip slightly. Higher global supply from Brazil, India, and Thailand is expected to keep international sugar prices under pressure.
Brazil is expected to increase its sugarcane production by 5.3% in the 2026/27 harvest, reaching 709.1 million tonnes, according to the first estimate for the cycle released yesterday by Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB). If confirmed, it will be the second largest harvest in CONAB’s historical series, behind only the 2023/24 season.
The projection for a larger harvest in the season, which began this month, is based on improved productivity and the expectation of a larger planted area this season, according to the company. CONAB expects that the weather conditions observed in 2025 will have positive effects on sugarcane crops in the current harvest and contribute to a 3.4% increase in average productivity, to 77.753 tonnes per hectare.
The harvested area should also increase by 1.9%, according to CONAB, to 9.1 million hectares. If the estimate is confirmed, it will be the largest sugarcane harvested area in the company’s historical series.
For the Southeast, the country’s main sugarcane producing region, with about 65% of the total, CONAB estimates a harvest of 459.1 million tonnes, 6.8% above the 2025/26 crop. The harvested area in the region should grow by 2.1%, to 5.7 million hectares, and average productivity should increase by 6.4% over the last crop, to 80.852 tonnes per hectare, reflecting better weather conditions.
With higher sugarcane production and more attractive market conditions for ethanol than for sugar, the sector is expected to increase biofuel production by 7.1%, to 29.26 billion liters. The largest share of the volume will be hydrated ethanol—sold directly at gas stations—which is projected at 18.29 billion liters, an increase of 6.3% over the previous harvest.
The production of anhydrous ethanol (used in gasoline blends) from sugarcane is estimated by CONAB at 10.97 billion liters, 8.4% above the last harvest.
The production of corn ethanol is also expected to grow in the season, by 12.3%, to 11.43 billion liters. Of this volume, 7.15 billion liters correspond to hydrated ethanol and 4.28 billion liters to anhydrous ethanol. The Central-West region is expected to remain the main corn ethanol producing region, while the Northeast is gaining relevance.
With expected increases in sugarcane and corn ethanol production, Brazil is projected to reach a total production of 40.69 billion liters of ethanol in the 2026/27 harvest, 8.5% higher than in the previous harvest. If confirmed, this volume should set a new record in CONAB’s historical series.
Sugar production, on the other hand, is expected to decrease slightly compared with the previous harvest in Brazil, by 0.5%, to 43.95 million tonnes.
In its report, CONAB also pointed out that international sugar prices should continue to be pressured by a greater global supply, with the recovery of harvests in major suppliers such as India and Thailand, and by the high availability of the Brazilian product. In the case of ethanol, the company sees a comfortable supply in the 2026/27 cycle, with price formation still conditioned by the behavior of fossil fuels.
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Source : Valor International
