Wheat set for biggest monthly drop in 2 years on harvest pressure
Singapore, June 28, 2024 – Chicago wheat prices held steady on Friday at $5.79-1/2 a bushel, despite significant gains the previous session due to strong demand. However, wheat is set for its largest monthly drop in two years, down nearly 15% in June, driven by increased northern hemisphere harvests. Corn and soybeans saw minor increases but are also expected to record monthly losses. The European Commission and Buenos Aires Grains Exchange noted expanded wheat planting, while USDA export data showed robust wheat sales.
SINGAPORE, June 28 (Reuters) – Chicago wheat was largely unchanged on Friday, holding on to last session’s gains due to strong demand, although the market is on track for its biggest monthly drop in two years as harvests across northern hemisphere boost global supplies.
Corn and soybeans gained ground, with both market poised for losses on June.
FUNDAMENTALS
* The Most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was flat at $5.79-1/2 a bushel, as of 0034 GMT. Corn added 0.2% to 4.23-1/4 a bushel and soybeans gained 0.2% at $11.07-1/4 a bushel.
* Wheat prices have dropped close to 15% in June, the biggest decline since the same month of 2022. Corn is down more than 5%, the most since August and soybeans have given up around 8%, the biggest since May last year.
* Harvest of wheat crops in top exporters in the northern hemisphere are adding seasonal pressure on prices.
* The European Commission on Thursday raised its forecast for the European Union’s main wheat crop this year and lifted its forecasts of EU wheat exports both in the current and next season.
* Wheat planting for the current harvesting season in Argentina has advanced rapidly over the past week due to recent rainfall over parts the country’s main farmland, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in a weekly report published on Thursday.
* The International Grains Council raised its forecast for 2024/25 global corn production on Thursday, driven mainly by an improved outlook for Brazil’s crop.
* The inter-governmental body’s monthly update gave an upward revision to its 2024/25 global corn crop outlook, increasing the forecast by 3 million metric tons to 1.223 billion tons, though it remained marginally below the previous season’s 1.226 billion tons.
* The wheat market rallied on Thursday, buoyed by strong demand. The USDA reported net U.S. wheat export sales in the week ended June 20 of 667,200 metric tons for 2024/25, above trade estimates of 200,000 to 600,000 tons.
* Healthy wheat exports, with Egypt and Algeria among the top importers, were reported on Thursday, indicating strong demand.
* Traders were positioning ahead of the release of USDA data. The agency is scheduled to release its next quarterly stocks report for June, and its 2024 acreage report on Friday at 1600 GMT.
* Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn, soybeans and soyoil futures contracts on Thursday, traders said. They were net buyers of wheat and soymeal.
MARKET NEWS
* Global stock indexes edged higher on Thursday, while U.S. Treasury yields declined slightly after a series of U.S. economic reports suggested ebbing momentum.
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