India’s Great Wall of Rice leaves Pakistan exposed
India is heading into 2027 with around 51 million tonnes of milled rice stocks, even as El Niño risks and a weak monsoon threaten production. Globally, rice consumption is expected to exceed production in 2026-27, narrowing the world’s stock cushion and increasing market uncertainty.
India is sitting on a mountain of rice. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects the country to carry 51 million tonnes of milled rice into 2027. That is almost 40 per cent of India’s annual consumption and more than twice the volume it is expected to export. In a nervous market, those stocks are more than food security.
The source of the nerves is El Niño. The World Meteorological Organization expects it to strengthen through the second half of 2026, with dry conditions likely across the Indian subcontinent. India’s monsoon rainfall was already 13 per cent below the long-period average by late August, and the full season could finish about 15 per cent short — the widest rainfall deficit since 2009. That does not mean a complete rice crop failure, but it raises irrigation costs and yield risk.
The USDA’s August forecast puts world milled-rice production at 537.3 million tonnes in 2026-27, down 8.2 million tonnes. Consumption is expected to rise to 542.8 million tonnes, creating a 5.5 million-tonne gap and pulling ending stocks down from 198.2 million to 192.6 million tonnes. The world is not running out of rice, but it is beginning to consume its cushion.
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Source : Profit Pakistan Today
