Sugar prices jump as weaker India monsoon forecast raises crop concerns
India cut its monsoon rainfall forecast to 90% of the long-term average, raising concerns that El Niño could reduce sugarcane yields. Global sugar prices surged, while expectations for a 2026-27 sugar surplus shrank sharply from 1.4 million tonnes to 100,000 tonnes.
India’s weather office has projected rainfall during the June-September monsoon season at 90% of the long-term average, lower than the 92% forecast issued in April. The revised outlook has raised fears that an emerging El Niño weather pattern could affect rainfall and reduce sugarcane yields in the world’s second-largest sugar producer, Moneycontrol reported.
The most-active raw sugar contract in New York climbed as much as 3% to 14.35 cents per pound, marking its biggest intraday gain since April 29. The increase came after four consecutive sessions of losses that had pushed the market into oversold territory. Market analyst Mike McDougall said speculative traders were actively buying sugar futures.
White sugar futures in London also surged, rising as much as 3.5% to $440.40 per tonne, the strongest increase since March 19.
Analysts said lower rainfall could affect India’s sugar production in the next season, potentially limiting the government’s ability to allow sugar exports. According to Claudiu Covrig, lead analyst at Covrig Analytics, a decline in Indian output has significantly reduced expectations for a global sugar surplus in the 2026-27 season.
The projected global surplus has been revised down to 100,000 tonnes from the 1.4 million tonnes estimated in March, mainly due to expectations of lower sugar production in India.
To Read more about Sugar Industry continue reading Agriinsite.com
Source : ChiniMandi
