USDA leaves forecast for corn harvest and exports from Ukraine unchanged
The USDA’s July outlook lowered global 2026/27 corn production to 1,297.09 million tonnes and ending stocks to 275.26 million tonnes, while raising exports to 209.88 million tonnes. U.S. exports increased, stocks declined, while forecasts for Ukraine, Brazil, Argentina, Russia, South Africa and China remained largely unchanged.
The USDA has released its July forecast for corn production, exports and ending stocks for major corn producers for the MY 2026/27.
The USDA has lowered its forecast for global production but raised its estimate for corn exports in MY 2026/27 compared to its June report.
According to the July forecast, global corn production in MY 2026/27 will be 1,297.09 million tonnes, which is 3.29 million tonnes less than expected in June. Global exports are estimated at 209.88 million tonnes (+2.27 million tonnes) and ending stocks are 275.26 million tonnes (-5.96 million tonnes).
The estimate of the corn harvest in Ukraine remained unchanged at 30 million tons. The USDA also did not revise the export forecast, which is 23 million tons, but lowered the forecast of ending stocks to 2.06 million tons from 2.56 million tons.
For the US, the USDA increased the forecast of corn production to 406.42 million tons compared to 406.29 million tons in June. Exports are forecast to rise to 81.28 million tonnes from 80.01 million tonnes, while ending stocks are forecast to fall to 45.46 million tonnes from 49.78 million tonnes.
Forecast for major corn exporters for MY 2026/27:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Exports, mln tons | Ending stocks, mln tons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 55 (0) | 38 (0) | 4.01 (0) |
| Brazil | 139 (0) | 44 (0) | 11.10 (0) |
| Russia | 15.8 (0) | 4 (0) | 0.91 (0) |
| South Africa | 16.5 (0) | 2 (0) | 2.39 (0) |
USDA analysts left China’s corn production forecast unchanged at 307 million tonnes. The country’s imports are estimated at 6 million tonnes, while ending stocks have been reduced to 165.13 million tons out of 166.13 million tons.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
